A Study On The Effect On International Liner Shipping Industry By Russia’s Entering Into The WTO

In2011, the committee countries of the WTO (World TradeOrganization) agreed with the proposal of Russia’s entering the WTO. Andalso in2012, the Duma of Russia approved this agreement, whichdesignated that Russia became a member of the WTO formally. From thenon, the trade coverage of the WTO has exceeded97%, making it be a trueworld-class organization. The Russia’s accession to the WTO will affectboth the international trade market and the international liner shippingmarket derived from the previous one. Based on this special background,it’s meaningful to analyze the effect on the international liner shippingindustry by Russia’s entry into the WTO.This thesis firstly introduces the relationship between internationaltrade and international shipping as the fundamental theory, selects andexplains three main methods about time series problems with significantchange one by one, and chooses the intervention model as the basic model.The next part is the analysis of the import and export commodities trade ofRussia for nearly20years and the basic structure of the trade including theproducts’ structure and nations’ structure. The agreement with the WTO isdiscussed and it is found that the field affected most by the accession ofRussia is the importation of manufactured goods. At last, the thesis sets upthe contrast-intervention analysis model, comparing the change of China’sinternational trade before and after its entering the WTO, and forecasts theimport and export value of Russia for the next several years. Based on thelogarithm relationship between international trade value and international port container throughput, the thesis estimates the future of Russia’s portcontainer throughput. The consequence shows that the throughput ofRussia’s port containers will be up to7.1million TEUs in2020and twiceof the number for now. This will give a significant infect on the globalvoyage layouts of international liner shipping companies and the positionof each regional port around Russia.This thesis is a frontier as Russia just enters the WTO and gives ameaningful method to analyze the effect of sporadic events. And theremust be some shortcomings. Please tell me your advices. Thank you.