Research Of Chinese Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings Situation Based On ARIMA Model

China has abundant tourism resources, a huge tourist market. Therefore, in order todevelop a more rational and efficient tourism-related policies, we need to carry outChinese tourism market, adequate research. Along with Chinese rapid economicdevelopment, international influence promotion, more and more foreigners are eager tolearn more about China. Thus, Tourism industry gradually warming, It’s revenue hasaccounted for a large share of Chinese economic income, meantime, has greater potentialfor development. Foreign tourists to our country tours, sightseeing, leisure and otheractivities, called inbound tourism. It is a country access to foreign exchange and animportant way to solve the employment. Therefore, the study of inbound tourism hasgreat significance.This paper introduces the basic theory of time series prediction, highlights theprocess of establishing the ARMA model and ARIMA model, including stationary test ofthe model, order determination, estimation and testing, the way of non-stationary timeseries into a stationary time series and model predictions.This article takes the annual data and monthly data of Chinese tourism as studyobject, using time series analysis techniques, conducting tourism foreign exchangeearnings data analysis based on ARIMA model and using Eviews6.0for modeling andparameter estimation, we can get the annual predictive value of Chinese tourism foreignexchange earnings and monthly forecast values. Compared with the actual value,evaluating the model and forecasting tourism foreign exchange earnings.That is a goodguide for the formulation of tourism policy.