Research On The Impact Of Shaanxi Province Industrial Structure Adjustment On Carbon Emissions

In the resent ten years, the global climate warming has been listed as the top of global tenten environmental issues, and Carbon dioxide has the greatest influence on climate changesamong the Greenhouse gases discharged from human activities. In August2010, our countryestablished Shaanxi province as one of the low carbon pilot provinces, and made low-carbontransformation of shaanxi province officially become the future direction of economydevelopment.On the basis of studying a large number of related articles, using the system simulationmethod and regression analysis, this paper constructed the system dynamics model of lowcarbonization adjustment of industrial structure in Shanxi Province with three industrial addedvalue、the whole society fixed assets investment and energy consumption carbon emissions asthe level variables. And simulated and forecasted the GDP、three industrial added value、totalenergy consumption and co2emissions of shaanxi province in next8years.And study on howto adjust the proportion of three industries in gross domestic product, as well as the impact ofadjustment of industrial structure on energy consumption carbon emissions. At last, this paperput forward some policy Suggestions according to the previous analysis.The conclusion is as follows:(1) According to industrial structure Low carbonization adjustment model of Shaanxiprovince, in the next eight years, the proportion of secondary industry will gradually increase,the proportion of the tertiary industry is declining. If we do not take certain measures, we willnot be able to complete the low carbon development goals established in Shaanxi Low CarbonPilot Work Plan.(2) In the next eight years, if Shaanxi province can ensure the original investment in fixedassets and science and technology, it would complete the unit of GDP carbon dioxideemissions requirements in Shaanxi Low Carbon Pilot Work Plan. But the cumulated amountof carbon dioxide will rise year by year, if we do not take any new policy or technical measures, the climate environment of Shaanxi province would be worse.(3) If our province could increase the fixed investment on the tertiary industry by20%,we will achieve that the tertiary industry proportion reach42%in2015, and reach45%in2020. Raise the proportion of tertiary industry, reduce the proportion of secondary industry,can effectively reduce the energy consumption carbon emissions and carbon dioxideemissions, and achieve the goal of energy conservation and emissions reduction.