A Study On Development Of Low-carbon Economy Based On System Dynamics Model And Countermeasure In The City Of Harbin

Development of low-carbon economy has become a strategic consensus around the world. Which has opened up a new way to get rid of the energy crisis and to ease pressure on the environment. Our country attaches great importance to the development of low-carbon economy. China has organized a low-carbon pilot provinces and low-carbon urban construction work in the country. The economic output of Harbin increased steadily in recent years, but the high energy consumption and high pollution model of economic development has caused serious ecological damage to the environment, which greatly restricts the sustainable development in the city of Harbin. Therefore, how to reduce greenhouse gases, especially of carbon dioxide emissions, achieve energy conservation and low-carbon economy is a serious problem for HarbinThis study constructs a low-carbon economic development system dynamics model in Harbin and simulates it between2005-2020. The scientific study is from a system perspective. After clearing the development goals of low-carbon economy, it analyses the current situation of low-carbon economic development in Harbin and points out the problem as well as the major factors affecting the development of low-carbon economy. This study uses System dynamics as the method and sees it as a whole, then determines the system boundary to study the higher order multiple feedback loops and highly nonlinear feedback causal relationship.After then it builds the system dynamics model to simulate the movement of the process of the development of low-carbon economy in Harbin. On this basis, this study does a system dynamics simulation, the dynamic simulation results show that maintaining the existing industrial structure, technological investment unit GDP energy, consumption structure and residents of low-carbon awareness unchanged, the goal of The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline can be achieved, but it is difficult to achieve the long-term goals, it needs policy simulation to explore countermeasures.In this study, it presents quantitative data to support low-carbon economic development suggestions by policy simulation. Based on the initial state of the model simulation results, this study combines with the low-carbon economic development goals adjust the model parameters, and does the model policy simulation under different scenarios. Then compares simulation results with each other to quantitative data to support countermeasure.:speeding up industrial restructuring, increasing investment in technology, adjusting the energy consumption structure, raising awareness of residents of low-carbon, multi-factor adjustment can achieve the low-carbon economic development goals in Harbin. The results of this study have reference significance for the government and relevant agencies to plan the development of low carbon economy.