Agricultural Land Investment Risk Analysis Of The Contract Management Right Holders

Since2004, the CPC Central Committee has released Central Document No．1which is force on three problems about countryside, agriculture and farmers for10consecutive years, that hope to support and encourage the circulation of agriculturalland to Improving Agricultural Ecological Environment and promoting the developmentof the rural economy． From the view of the current situation of the circulation, thecirculation of agricultural land has made certain achievements, but the circulation ofagricultural land to promote the role of investment in agricultural land is not significant.Various of the risks faced in the investment process in the agricultural land becomeimportant factor that restricts the contract management right holders investment． Forthis reason, the analysis of the risks faced by the agricultural land in the investmentprocess has a positive role in promoting the contract management right holdersinvesting in agricultural land and maintaining agricultural land long-term sustainableuse．This article from the perspective of the contract management right holders, First ofall, on the basis of analysis of the causes of the agricultural land investment risk, weused Delphi method and field survey to identify the risks in the investment process ofthe agricultural land, And divided the risk factors into two categories of general risksand the specific risks． Secondly, through the analysis of impact of these two types ofrisk on the net investment income of the agricultural land, Using of the cash flows toreflect the risk factors and determine the variables which are affected by the riskfactors—investment of agricultural land, the prices of agricultural products, agricultural production, the investment increase production and agricultural investment after the unitof value-added price． Thirdly, using the with and without comparison method reflectthe changes of agricultural prices and agricultural production between investment inagricultural land and non-investment in agricultural land． Established the probabilitydistribution of each variable through the software of easyfit5．4． Then, Monte Carlomethod was used to simulate the net proceeds of agricultural land investment, andexpectation approach and histogram method were used to calculate the risk ofinvestment in agricultural land． Finally, we used eight counties around Xi’an asresearch subjects, then putting forward some countermeasure and suggestion accordingthe results to achieve the purpose of reducing the investment risks of agricultural land．The purpose of this article is to reduce the investment risk of agricultural land ofthe contract management right holders． It not only to provided a reference for thecontract management right holders for the investment decisions of agricultural land, butalso gave some advices to the relevant departments to develop policy to reduce theinvestment risks of agricultural land． The study of this paper has important practicalsignificance to maintain agricultural land that after transfer sustainable use．...