Tourism Demand Modeling And Forecasting Based On Information Diffuseness Mechanism

Tourism demand modeling and forecasting is a part of critical research of the tourismresearch areas. Because the perishable characteristic of tourism products, tourism demandforecasting and the tourism industry plan becomes very important to the long-term industrydevelopment. Tourism products have been provided by the tourism enterprises and thetourist consume the relative tourism products. Therefore the information relationships havebeen connected between the tourism enterprises and tourists. Based on the previous studyfluctuation of tourism demand can be described by the information diffuseness mechanismand this study aimed to build a tourism demand-forecasting model to measure therelationship between those two factors. This study firstly reviews the previous study of thisfield. Based on the statistical analysis of those articles that have been collected the area oftourism demand modeling and forecasting has been divided into four sub-themes,forecasting models, analysis of seasonal and mega-events, and the forecasting accuracyand data types. After these reviews this research discussed the way of improved modelingmethods.After the review this study focused on the discussion of the logical relationshipbetween tourism demand fluctuation and information diffuseness mechanism. The analysisfirstly discussed the relationship between the general demand generate and information.Then this study discussed the phenomenon that information affects the tourism demandgeneration. After that this study analysis the features of tourism information spread and thechannels of information spread. This study builds a tourism demand-forecasting modelbased on the logical relationship, which have been discussed already. The main form offorecasting model has been set in the form of differential equations. Other four forecastingmodels have also been established to make a comparison of the main research model inorder to test the accuracy and the forecasting stable of main forecasting model.In the empirical section, this study use the data of1997to2010inbound tourismmarket of China and three sub-markets of U.S.A, UK, and Japan. After the fittingcalculation use the absolute error and MAPE index to depict the forecasting accuracy ofthe main research model and the comparison model. Find that the main model that webuild makes a highly forecasting accuracy advantage of overall market forecasting. And the other four models have its advantages and disadvantages in some market segments.Finally this research gives some policy recommendations based on the forecastingempirical study and discussed the deficiency of this research and give some improvementmethods.