Indonesia Electricity Capacity Integrated Resource Strategic Planning

This thesis investigates the long-term electricity energy capacity planning forIndonesia to meet its growing demand. Despite its high economic growth number,Indonesia faces problems of vulnerability of its electricity system proven by the highfrequency of rolling blackouts. The condition might get worse as electricity demand ispredicted to grow with9.2%Y-o-Y average. In addition, challenged with15%new andrenewable energy source mix target in2025, Indonesia’s electricity system needs arobust and reliable planning method. As a comprehensive model derived fromIntegrated Resource Planning (IRP), specific method of Integrated Resource StrategicPlanning (IRSP) incorporating Demand-Side Management (DSM) measures meets thecriteria specified. To better study Indonesia’s electricity system characteristics, IRSP isexpanded into a non-linear in nature and extended with regularization to handlemultiple local optimums. The optimal solutions of the regularized non-linear IRSPshow a percentage mix of20.94%of new and renewable energy in2025achieved withUS$164.73billion total cost incurred. Without DSM measures, the target seems to beinfeasible to achieve as new and renewable energy percentage mix peaks at13.58%in2025. However, scenario analysis shows that introduction of additional incentivepolicies would scale the percentage mix up to15.23%with a total amount of incentivegiven of US$138.48million.