An Analysis Of The Effects Of Demographic Dividend On Economic Growth

A country or region’s economic development is closely linked to their demographic.Economic development will be subject to the impact of demographic to some extent,and the demographic situation will be affected to some extent by the result of economic development. Demographic covers a great many factors,such as birth rate,mortality rate,natural population growth rate, fertility rate,population age structure,dependency ratio and so on.When the birth rate,mortality rate and fertility rate of the whole society changes,it will often cause a change of the population age structure.However,domestic and foreign scholars have found that changes in population age structure will have kinds of effects,such as "population balance","demographic dividend" and so on,on economic growth.In this paper,we describe the basic situation of our country’s population first,and then we get a determination that our country are now in the period of demographic dividend,from the perspective of the dependency ratio. Secondly,we analyze the effect of our country’s demographic dividend which is caused by the changes of population age structure,on economic growth,from the aspects of deposit,labor supply and consumption.And we draw the following conclusions:While the total dependency ratio declines by one percent,the deposit rate will rise by1.56percent,and the per capital deposit will rise by7.93percent;The total dependency ratio changes by one percent will make the output elasticity of labor change by0.31percent reversedly;The total dependency ratio declines by one percent will make the consumption decline by0.49percent.Further more,we have analyzed positive and negative effects,which the demographic dividend hase imposed on the economic growth.And we have estimated that our demographic dividend contributed to economic growth by18.20percent from1990to2008.Then we forecast the duration of our demographic dividend and the total economy in the future period of demographic dividend. And we draw the following predictions:Our demographic dividend will continue until2037;Changes of dependency ratio will contribute to economic growth by26.43percent in the future period of demographic dividend,from2011to2037.Finally,from the whole paper,we propose several recommendations on how to response to the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,and on how to seize the demographic dividend to develop our economy.