The Impacts Of China Population Aging On Economic Growth

"China will be an irreversible aging society in the 21^st century." This is the conclusion which was got by National Working Committee Office of Aging,after they published the report "The studies on the prediction of the development of population aging trends in China." It is showed that from relevant statistics that over 60 years old age has reached 153.4 million in 2007 in China;and above 65 years old age has reached 1.2636 million.It is predicted that the above 60 years old age will reach 412 million;and the elderly population aged over 65 will reach 307 million in 2050.The huge series number indicates that the China aging population will be a severity problem to us.Faced with such challenges,we should be objective and face this problem positively.This thesis based on the theoretical and practical point of view,try to study the population aging impact on economic growth,and concluded that the affection of population aging on economic growth will be a significant impact in 2030,and then proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,the thesis considered that it is the best stage for solving the problem of population aging before 2030.Therefore, we must fully utilize the best time and minimize the negative impacts of aging population on economic and take advantage of the opportunities to search new economic growth point which will be brought by the aging population.This thesis consists of four parts.The first part is the preface,the main topics it includes the background and significance of the study,and the review on later literature as well as the idea and the methods of the research,and the introduction about the frame structure of this thesis.The second part is the theoretical and practical analysis.First of all,it is the introduction about the present situation of China aging population,and an analysis of the characteristics and the reason for China aging population,then point out that the fundamental reason for China aging population is the policy of family planning;then comment economic growth theory,any economic growth theory put emphasis on the affection of labor and savings on economic growth,which are precisely determined by demographic factors,the advent of the population aging will definitely impact on these two areas;and then analysis the affection of labor on economic growth,on the whole,labor plays a positive role in economics growth,the more abundant labor resources,the faster a country's economic growth,the facts of China rapid economics growth also confirmed this point;finally,it analysis of the impact of savings on economic growth,through data analysis of savings on economic growth also confirmed that savings plays a positive role,although the savings of a state is not a good thing if it is very much,for a populous developing country such as China, high-speed savings rate is still an important factor to promote China rapid economic growth.The third part describes the impact of aging population on economics growth form two aspects,an aspect is that the impact of aging on the labor supply,based on the data conclude that:firstly,population aging will enhance the dependency ratio all over the society,reduce the quantity of labor supply,but this negative impact on economic growth will not obviously appear until 2030,before 2030 China will be in the situation of sufficient labor supply,and it is the best stage for China economic growth.Secondly,compared with the aging problem all over the world,we could find that in the modern society,aging population does not bring about the reduction of labor productivity,and on the contrary it creates a favorable business condition for the company to develop the structure.The second aspect is the impact of aging on the level of savings.Through the life cycle theory of savings,we can see a normal law of person's savings is "more savings when working,less savings when retired".The arrival of the aging brings many elderly people in China.China has entered a period of aging in 1999,but the arrival of the aging does not arose the large-scale reduce of savings.Through data analysis,there is a lag of the impact of China's population aging on savings.At present the current level of Chinese population aging does not reduce the level of savings,while in 2030 this impact will be more visible.In summary,the Chinese prior to 2030 is a very critical period to solve the problem of aging.The last part gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the analysis results.The first point is to call on the whole society to care for the elderly,to create a comfortable living environment for the elderly,to ease the mind of the elderly,and to lead them to do some things in their power.This is the best and most natural way to deal with the negative effects of aging,which is the traditional virtue of Chinese nation in a harmonious society under the best mapping.The second point is to change the mode of economic growth,promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,which is the essential measure to solve the problem of aging.Chinese cheap labor force create a good environment for China's economic growth,but With the arrival of aging we must change the extensive economic growth mode in the past and use our advantages in human resources to reduce the labor shortage problem caused by the aging.At the same time,population aging brings the new economic growth opportunities.To develop the old-age industries is not only to meet the needs of older persons,but also to search for the new economic growth point of support.Only the rapid development of economy could solve the aging problem. The third point is to deepen the reform of pension insurance system,which is to solve the problem of aging is currently the most urgent task,the elderly is a relatively vulnerable groups,who required the concern all of the society.It is the most important issue that how we can provide proper social security for the age especially the age in rural areas.The last point is that we should perfect the labor market and financial markets,in order to provide more suitable job opportunities for the age and to promote to transfer savings into capital properly for economic growth,so we can ensure the preservation and increase appreciation of old-age pensions for the elderly, so that we can provide material protection in their twilight years living.We should get fully ready on the eve of the arrival of the peak of aging population in order to respond the impact of aging population on China economic growth as well as possible.