An Empirical Research Of The Textile Manufacturing Listed Companies’ Financial Crisis Early-Warning System

Because of the development of our market economy and the influence of marketcompletion based on economic globalization, the risk and complexity of corporate financialsituation has been increase. In the market economy circumstance of “survival of the fittest",the financial risk has become a top problem that more and more managements pay attention to.Financial risk pre-warning is a serious problem, lightly it may control the right developmentand the profit among financial institution and inverters. Moreover, it will lead to the localeconomic turmoil, even worse global financial crisis. Nowadays, financial risk pre-warning isstill a complicated and frontier problem during the company development. Only use thetraditional theory and statistics method is not good enough to discuss and research any more.The new theory and technology to improve the financial risk pre-warning is quite on edge. Inthe mean time, it is also important to development the new theory and thought in order toexpand the research. The essay is based on exist research, to point on the financial situation ofthe textile manufacturing companies located in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The essay takes20listed companies as sample and using statistics software named “SPSS16.0” as provisionresearch and the methods based on normative research.There are5parts in this essay. The first part as an introduction describe the researchhistory, research significance, the main idea of the research, the research method and theoryframework. The second part introduces the theory research of financial risk pre-warningsystem based on four parts: financial risk demarcation, the reasons of financial crisis, thedefinition of risk pre-warning and the function and features of pre-warning system. The thirdpart is using the statistics software named “SPSS16.0” to sample to complete the design of thedata system, and establish the structure of the model. The fourth part is firstly to use Explore(normal distribution) and K-S methods to test the data system. Then it will use the factoranalysis to sample again. Based on the data, it will make a risk pre-warning model underLogistic regression method. At last, to test the model under Model Summary and comparewith judging result. The last part is the summary of the easy based on real research. It alsopoint out the shortage of Innovation of the essay and present the prospects and suggestionsbased on the research.