The Study On Financial Crisis Early-warning System Based On The Cash Flow Of The Listed Company In China

The number of Chinese listed companies increase and the scale expands gradually with the rapid development of market economy in China and the constant expansion of the securities market. Chinese listed companies meet the reform and development opportunities at the same time, also face a more intense competition and more risk.Since our country securities market introduced the listed company special treatment (ST) system in 1998,558 listed companies had been special treated by the end of 2010.It led to a substantial loss of investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. Setting up a set of scientific and effective listed company financial crisis warning evaluation system, become the most urgent things of the investors, creditors, listed company management and government regulators.The listed company financial crisis warning system can provide timely and accurate information for the company's investors and creditors, so that reduces the risk of investment. At the same time, the company management also can find the financial problems in advance, so that takes effective measures to get rid of the financial risk. The system can also help the government regulators monitoring the quality of listed companies and the stock market risk more convenient and effective.Foreign financial crisis warning about the listed company has a lot of research achievements and has established many accurate, effective models. However, domestic securities market with abroad have many differences, which require us build a set of model applicable to the current reality of our country market economy. Domestic studies in this field started relatively late, and the most used financial indexes taking traditional accounting income as the center. There are many shortcomings in the early warning system based on traditional financial indexes. From the perspective of cash flow, researching the listed company financial crisis warning is the motives of this study.This thesis includes the following five parts:The first part is the introduction. This paper mainly expounds the research background, research ideas, structural frame, researching method and innovation point.The second part, the financial crisis warning research at home and abroad based on cash flow were reviewed. Through the review of domestic and international financial crisis warning research results, compare and analyze the representative financial crisis warning model.The third part is the introduction of enterprise financial crisis warning on the basis of related theory. First of all, define the related concept of the financial crisis warning involved. Second, introduce the theoretical basis and the economics and management theory basis of the development of financial crisis warning theory.The fourth part is the empirical analysis. This thesis selected the cash flow indexes through the analysis of the influence factors enterprise financial crisis caused by. First, cash flow indexes are divided into the ability to obtain cash index, debt paying ability index, earnings quality index, cash flow structure index and financial elastic development ability index. According to inspecting the distribution of the warning indexes and significant inspection, extract the effective indexes. Next, use multi-logistics model to construct the model of 2008,2007 and2006, and inspect the discrimination and prediction ability of the model.The fifth part is the research conclusion and policy suggestions. According to the empirical results we infer some research conclusion and according to the related indexes and problems, this thesis presents some policy suggestions. At last, point out the deficiency and look forward to related researches.The author modified and innovated the previous research results in the following two aspects:1. This thesis used the cash flow index to build the index system. It corrects the method of only using traditional financial indexes. It can reflect the enterprise financial crisis more sensitive.2. There are 26 indexes from the cash flow statement in the financial crisis warning index system that this thesis designed. To be more universal and representative, we introduced three traditional financial indexes. These indexes were divided into five categories. So, it is a comprehensive index selection system. First according to the index distribution inspection, it reflects that the most indexes are not normal distribution. So we abandoned the T test that most scholars used in significant inspection, and chose the no-parameters testing method.