Study Of The Sotck Option Based On The Price Of The Underlying Asset Future Price Forecasting Role

With the fast development of finance in the modem banking and corporate world, modern financial derivative have become increasingly important. Option is one of the most active financial products that have been traded on many exchanges. As a financial derivative, option’s price depends on the asset price movement. And as a tool of investment, it can help market participants make right decision.First, this paper introduces option’s definition, its origin and the famous Black-scholes model.Second, this text introduces two calculated methods of volatility (historical volatility model and EWMA model), and it makes the calculated volatility anti-launch the price of underlying asset. It can test the affect of option price which calculated by two different ways through single factor of variance analysis method.Then, this paper introduces that the stock option’s price can effect its future underlying asset’s price. It can obviously forecast its underlying asset’s future price by set up the model of the stock option’s historical price.Finally, this study introduces that the stock option’s volatility can effect its future underlying asset’s future volatility.The purpose of this study is to provide new ideas for forecast of financial the stock option’s price and volatility. This paper can help investors who want to participate in Chinese financial market to make the right decisions and risk control.