Researchn On The Impact Factors Of Export Flactuations During Financial Crisis

The international financial crisis triggered by the US Sub-prime Crisis in2007has exerted a severe impact on the economy across the world, China is without exception. Since China’s financial market is not fully open to the outside currently, especially for the capital market, international trade plays an important role in the transmission of financial shocks. As an export-oriented country, export is one of the main impetuses that promote China’s economic growth. During the financial crisis, the external demand shrank sharply, and the insufficient domestic demand added to the pressure. Once export appears to drop considerably, it will surely affect social stability caused by problems, such as increasing unemployment rate and decreasing economic growth. Therefore, the recovery and stable development of export becomes our primary task under this circumstances.Firstly, this paper combs the relevant literatures on financial crisis theory and the impact of financial crisis on export trade mechanism, providing a theoretical foundation for the full text.Secondly, the paper makes a descriptive analysis based on the current situation of export trade development during financial crisis. In the considerable long term, HP Filter is adopted to demonstrate the collaborative relation between China’s GDP and export trade. While in short term, monthly data form2008to2010is used to make a detailed description of the impact of financial crisis on export trade in perspectives of mode of trade, export commodity structure and the ownership of export firms.Thirdly, combined with related data, a set of indicators are built in terms of demand, supply and policy to make a deeper analysis on the transmission mechanism of export trade during financial crisis. By using Error Correlation Mechanism, this paper estimates the impact factors of export fluctuation and the dynamic process which deducts the speed of short-term fluctuation returning to long-term equilibrium.The overall regression indicates that the sharp decrease in external demand is the dominant factor which severely affects China’s export trade during financial crisis. In terms of different modes of trade, processing export trade has larger income elasticity, and affects more from FDI; while general export trade is incline to be influenced by price effect, such as exchange rate. The crisis itself as a variable, affects general export trade more severely than processing export trade. And processing export trade recovers faster than general export trade. In terms of different sorts of export commodities, manufacturing products tend to have larger income elasticity; while agricultural products and labor intensive products have considerable larger price elasticity. Export goods such as mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products suffer greater shocks than primary products and textiles, but recover more quickly.