The Research On Inventory Risk Managemnt Of Fast-Fashion Supply Chain Retailers Based On Stress Testing Method

In recent years, as international clothing brands such as ZARA, H&M enter China market,"fast fashion" has become a new trend of Chinese clothing industry, fast fashion brand, actually should be called "fast fashion retail value brand"."Fast fashion retail value brand" is embodied in three aspects:customers use less money to get more fashionable clothing, faster product development cycle, fast fashion following the fashion trends. New requirements of supply chain management has been required because of "fast fashion" changes in clothing industry. However, the fast fashion companies in China is facing unprecedented huge impact of inventory risk.In the increasingly fierce international competition environment, supply chain extension in the global intensified the complexity and uncertainty, the impact of the supply chain faces multiple risks. In numerous instability factors, extreme events is very special, its probability of occurrence is small, but the extreme events is sudden and unpredictable; in the same time extreme situation can cause huge impact to the enterprise, such as a direct result of cost increases, profit decline, production fell sharply and even production disruptions.Stress testing is the important tool of risk management, is a mainly on quantitative analysis of the risk analysis method, the emphasis is on scene by setting pressure, used to determine the value of assessment model, measure the object of study can be affected by the or loss. In this paper, the main work is to use Stress testing method to evaluate fast fashion supply chain inventory risk and put forward corresponding countermeasures. By quiet pressure setting, reflected in extreme impact mode, will face fast fashion supply chain inventory risk. In this paper, we study the following core issues:First of all, summarize the relevant theories of the fast fashion supply chain, stress testing, and supply chain inventory risk management. Through the fast fashion supply chain literature, summed up the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, analyzes how supply chain operation to ensure the implementation of "fast", the analysis of the stress test specific technique, method and application, analyze the possibility of its in supply chain risk management, summarized in view of the large market demand uncertainty and must be determined in the sales order quantity of product more than the newsboy model to determine the most quantity, analysis of the existing improved newsboy model, and to help establish a newsboy model for fast fashion supply chain. Secondly, because of fast fashion supply chain production lead time is long, the short sales cycle, lower the residual value of the final unsold products, the characteristics of strong demand volatility, consider the customer purchasing behavior is rational, establish consider secondary sales newsboy model in the case of utility customers. For garment industry, even if the final unsold products are still valuable, fast fashion retailers to low-priced, anti-season promotion methods such as the rest products to below cost to sell in order to reduce the loss, in the same way, at the time of sale customers will still be compared with their psychological price to decide whether to purchase the product. As a result, the secondary can establish consider customer utility sales newsboy model.Thirdly, set change size for impact factor, using of Stress testing method, to discuss your order, inventory. According to the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, the recognition to the fast fashion supply of inventory risk factors, adopts the secondary sales newsboy model considering customer utility to quantify risk factors, assume that the extreme, even on fast fashion supply retailers face inventory risk.Finally based on fast fashion supply chain inventory risk simulation model is established, combining with the analysis of inventory risk factors, by establishing the random demand inventory, a simulation model based on the construction of a baseline scenario, considering demand surge and the sharp drop in inventory cost, shortage cost for retailers.In this paper, the innovation points can be summarized as the following three aspects:On the theoretical research, first to Stress testing combined with risk of supply chain inventory management theory. Stress testing as the financial sector risk management tool, nearly two years to apply to the supply chain risk management, is an emerging research methods.Research contents, current research on fast fashion supply of inventory management is small, in this paper, according to the characteristics of fast fashion supply chain, considering the reality facing the fast fashion supply chain inventory risk point of view, quantitative inventory risk.On the research methods, build considering customer utility secondary sales newsboy model. At present although for product update speed, the requirement of the logistics operation time is short, out-of-season products surplus value low newsboy model has a lot of extensive research, consider the customer utility secondary sales newsboy model needs to be improved.