The Empirical Study Of The Crucial Reason Of Dollar Exchange Rate

From the bretton woods system to Jamaica system,65years, the dollar has been the center of currency in the international monetary system. The end of last century at the beginning of this century, the birth of the euro, the emergence of a U.S. economic strength is quite economies-the European Union. Ten years since the birth of the euro, the economic structure significant changes have taken place in the world, after30years of rapid development of China "" China’s rise has changed from a concept to the fact that the subprime crisis and the European and American debt crisis one after another. The center of the dollar currency status by the internal credibility double threat outside the euro, the yuan was associated with a decrease in the challenge, but14years since the birth of the euro, dollar center currency is essentially unchanged. Dollar exchange rate fluctuations widely influence of international financial market stability, the stability of the international trade settlement, and the world reserve assets management structure. And the decision making process of the theory and practice confirmed that the dollar is complicated, and with the change of economic situation, its motion law appeared new characteristics, response to the economic variables in the new situation, so I have the ability to keep to the traditional theory of exchange rate against the dollar, the euro was born in14years the relationship between the dollar and what factors and how questions. The euro was born in14years, will tell from the length of time is just an economic cycle, provides more abundant data for empirical research.The article is divided into four parts. The first chapter is introduction, mainly introduced the euro since the birth of the world economy background, the subprime crisis, the European and American debt crisis and the rise of China, and in the importance of the dollar mark change research, and then to this article two of the most important concept-"exchange rate" and "the international monetary system" has carried on the brief explanation, finally to domestic and international theories about exchange rate determination and the dollar exchange rate research literature review; The second chapter is the theoretical basis, focuses on classic traditional exchange rate determination theory, theory of purchasing power parity (PPP), interest rate parity theory and the theory of asset markets, Europe, America, Japan and brief introduction of the exchange rate policy; The third chapter is the main content of this paper, the empirical analysis, first determine the empirical analysis; Then according to the theoretical basis for selecting variables; After chosen variables, data collection and processing of various variables; Data of each variable correlation test, low correlation variable is put forward, so that the following empirical; After correlation test, selected variables, implementing stationarity test to find out the co-integration relationship; After the ADF test and Johansen test, VAR model, impulse response analysis was carried on; Finally, summary the empirical analysis, get the following empirical conclusions:first, buy parity theory can more correctly explain the dollar exchange rate change. Second, the interest rate parity theory’s ability to explain the dollar is very low. As found in the empirical analysis in this chapter, spreads very low impact on exchange rate movements in Europe and America, and Japan currency variable set empirically, is contrary to the interest rate parity theory. Third, the price elasticity of monetary model cannot explain the euro since the birth of the dollar. Money supply indicators of the empirical results show that the long-term empirical conclusions and2set of variables based on purchasing power parity (PPP) price elasticity of monetary model conclusion, in the short term, Europe and the United States currency contrary conclusions and us-japan variable group conclusions are consistent. Fourth, the dollar and gold prices in the short term, complement each other for a long time. In two variables set both short-term and long-term empirical analysis, empirical analysis of the price of gold is the only thing whether different variables group, or a short conclusion is the same for a long time. In the short-term, gold and dollar alternative, long-term gold and dollar must be complementary. The fourth chapter is about the interpretation of the empirical conclusions standpoints, and future research prospects for the dollar since the birth of the euro actual direction deviates from the traditional exchange rate determination theory from the real reason-the change of the international monetary system, the fundamental reason-Europe, the United States and Japan not fully floating exchange rate policy and the internal reason, traditional theory of internal defects of exchange rate determination three aspects of interpretation, alternative complementary relationship of gold and dollar from the nonmonetary gold law and internal natural monetary interpretation, the final against the us dollar to study from macro to micro combination to make the future.