| Since the reform and open-up policy, China’s scale of foreign trade increased atan average annual growth rate more than20%, by2011, China’s import and exportvalue$3.64206trillion, of which exports$1.8986trillion, ranking first in the word,imports$1.74346trillion, ranking second in the world. However, the rapid growth oftrade scale relies on resources consumption and labor advantage, more than50%ofthe volumes of trade were completed by OEM, exports were lack of independentintellectual property rights and brands; In addition, low value-added and labor&resource-intensive products dominate, the proportion of high-tech products exports isrelatively low. Therefore, China’s current foreign trade development pattern isextensive way, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of foreign trade,and in urgent need of change. Technological innovation as an important way topromote foreign trade development pattern, make full use of high-tech to promote thefurther transformation of China’s foreign trade development pattern is the foothold ofChina’s foreign trade.This article mainly analyzes the impact of technology innovation on China’sforeign trade development pattern, firstly, it analyzes the mechanism of the impact oftechnological innovation on the foreign trade development pattern, from technologicalinnovation to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, trade structureoptimization and foreign trade sustainable development to illustrate the conversion offoreign trade development pattern; secondly, by setting up the comprehensiveevaluation index system of foreign trade development which covers four levelsincluding scale indicators, structural indicators, competitiveness indicators andsustainable development indicators, a total of35indicators, through using principalcomponent analysis to estimates the level of conversion of China’s foreign tradedevelopment pattern over years, hereby evaluate the degree of conversion of China’sforeign trade development pattern; finally, establishing the regression model oftechnological innovation to industrial structure upgrading, trade structure optimizationand foreign trade sustainable development, and the regression model of these three indicators and endogenous technological innovation to foreign trade developmentpattern, using the co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response functionand variance decomposition to make empirical analysis to demonstrate the importanceof technological innovation to foreign trade development pattern conversion.The empirical results show that: from1911to2010, the conversion level offoreign trade development pattern is in a state of steady rise, which reflects China’sforeign trade development pattern convert has achieved better results; the threevariables which represent technological innovation has a significant positive impacton foreign trade development pattern conversion, whenever the R&D input intensityhas greater impact than other two factors; R&D input intensity, the output tare oftechnological innovation and human capital intensity are the Granger reason offoreign trade development pattern conversion, and which the R&D input intensity hasthe most significant influence on it; when a variable in the VAR model expose toexternal shocks, the impulse response of foreign trade development patternconversion comes from R&D input intensity is the most obvious, and the reactions arepositive and sustainable, but the impulse response from other factors are quitecomplex, which are showing cyclical fluctuations, alternating positive and negative.On the basis of theoretical and empirical research, the paper brings forward thatChina should establish the Technological Innovation-Focused foreign tradedevelopment pattern, and make relevant policy recommendations which includeincreasing the R&D investment, to improve the ability of introduction, digestion,absorption and re-innovation of technological innovation, to establish thetrade-promoted technological innovation system, and so on. |
