The Research On Synthetical Evaluation Of Foreign Trade Growth Pattern Conversion

Along with the acceleration of the globalization on the Chinese economy, the foreign trade has a rapid development. During the period of tenth"five year", the export has reached the annual average growth of 24%, while the import is 23.7%. The total foreign trade amount has doubled on the basis of 2000. At the same time, the annual speed growth of export has exceeded 30%. But the foreign trade of China still is quantity featured which appears at the base of quantity growth and cheap price. From the domestic view, the ratio of dependence on foreign trade has ascended gradually which implies the challenges on the economy safety, and the quantity-featured growth pattern also make the shortage of resources, the deterioration of the environment as well. From the aboard view, the numerous foreign exchange has caused the pressure on the appreciation of RMB, while this pattern has resulted in the price competition, deterioration on terms of trade and the more disputes of trade. If China prefers to keep the push effect of the foreign trade to the national economy, China has to convert the foreign trade growth pattern that is bringing the growth onto the quality improvement.This paper first introduces the theory of economical growth,international division,industry economics and open economy depend on which analyses the requirement and the direction of the conversion on the foreign trade growth pattern and sets up the target model. Second, according to relative principles and the methodology of index-selecting, this paper sets up the system of evaluating indexes on the foreign trade growth pattern which covers three levels including quantity indexes,structure indexes and effectiveness indexes that total number is 36. In the light of the evaluating index system, this paper can synthetically evaluating the conversion of the foreign trade growth pattern and the problems during the procession. Third, this paper fixes the weight of each index by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP). After introducing the nondimensional theory for the Positive Index,Negative Index and Fit Index, this paper chooses the weighted summary to synthetically evaluate the growth pattern. Forth, this paper takes Jiangsu province as a case to evaluate conversion of the foreign trade growth pattern form 2000 to 2007 longitudinally, while transversally compare the synthetical evaluation between Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province, from which shows the advantages and disadvantages of Jiangsu foreign trade.The empirical results show that: the quantity index reveal the amount of Jiangsu foreign trade has gone up gradually; the trade structure has optimized fluctuantly with the weakness compared with the quantity growth; the benefits from the trade appears rising gradually; in a whole, the conversion effect is best on 2002. But taking a deep and detailed insight to the index system, the situation is the ratio of dependence on foreign trade appears higher, the trade partners are simplification, the energy that consumed by foreign trade is large etc. All these strike the alarm. As a result, Jiangsu province should improve the optimization of the trade structure on the basis of quantity growth: speed up the structure adjustment of export industry which improve the commodity structure, put emphasis on the trade of domestic-investment companies, keep carrying on the strategy of market diversification; turn to improvement on benefits of trade: on the macro level, rectify the macro mechanism of controlling and develop self-owned brand, on the micro level, transform the business mechanism of enterprises to the scale management; continuously advance the sustainable development of trade, cut down the trade of environment- unfriendly commodities, strive to improve the green trade and circular economy.