Research For Quarry Investment Decision Based On Real Option Games

Uranium is the reactor fuel of nuclear power station and nuclear weapons material, it occupy the important position in our national economy and in the safe of national defence, in order to avoid blindly exploiting and causing resources to waste, so the economic evaluation of the uranium ore project is important. Traditional methods (especially the NPV) haven't estimate the value which brought by these uncertain factors, and they can't reflect correctly the true value of uranium ore project. Though the defect of traditional capital budget theory in the analysis of investment strategy are compensated by introducing the real options theory and method, the influences of competition factors have not been seriously taken into consideration. The proposal of Option Games Theory makes it possible for enterprises to evaluate investment projects roundly and precisely, and to make correct investment strategic.The thesis consists of the following parts:1)The thesis analyzes the mineral resource potential value and mineral resource competitiveness to the value corrosive nature, proposes the important meaning of researching mine investment decision. builds the model of the option games theory in the investment strategic analysis by combined the optimal stopping theory and the timing game theory.2)The thesis puts forward the two-oligopoly option game theory system framework, includes theory basis,main tools and the method, sets up the mine project investment strategic model based on the two-oligopoly option game theory and the basic thinking and the essential running processes of the option game theory in the mine project investment strategic model.3) The two-oligopoly option game theory system model is applied to the uranium mines investment strategies, and carry on the numerical analysis to a uranium mine case,proved the options game theory system model applied to the uranium mines analysis of the investment decision-making can be fully considered uncertainty factors and competition factors, and thus are able to achieve optimal uranium mine project investment decisions.