Uranium Is Real Option Game Investment Analysis

Uranium is a nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons material，It plays an importantrole in China’s national economy and national defense security. Uranium mineinvestment decision is influenced by fluctuations in demand, the scale of production,operating costs, product prices, barriers to entry, the economic environment and otheruncertain factors. The traditional net present value method in the evaluation project ofinvestment decision which is flexible or having strategic growth often underestimatesthe value of the item, even lead to a wrong decision. While uranium resource has thetypical real option characteristics, with the market competition of economic value,introducing real option game theory can better resolve the uranium resourcemanagement flexibility problems, overcome the stiff problems under the traditionalnet present value standards, and it has important practical significance inimplementation of uranium resource assets evaluation and investment decision.First, this paper introduces the uranium resource characteristics, distributionsituation at the national and international level, the uranium ore exploration, priceexpectation, analyses production and management situation and carrys out thestrategic investment decision analysis of uranium resources qualitatively.Second, combining the real options with game theory, this paper studys theinvestment strategy interaction among enterprises under the symmetric andasymmetric conditions, builds enterprise investment option game model to solve theconflict when the enterprises are in the face of waiting for getting the option valueand beat investment to gain first-mover advantage in the investment.Third, thinking about the uranium resources, this paper introduces real optiongame model, expands uranium investment real option game model, that is, it carrysout strategy analysis under uncertain conditions of the symmetrical and asymmetricalduopoly mining enterprises in the case of monopoly, considering the uncertaintyfactors and competitive factors caused risks, builds one real option game modelwhich is suitable for the uranium mine enterprises investment analysis so as toachieve the optimal investment decision for uranium project and provide certaintheory basis for China’s uranium mine economy development.Finally, taking some uranium mine investment decision making as examples, thispaper performs the uranium industry data collection and statistical analysis, accordingto the uranium mine of Asymmetric Duopoly Option Game Analysis of investmentstrategy model, the uranium mine investment case is studied by numerical analysisand resolved, achieves optimal decision meeting the realistic conditions.