Research On Supply And Demand Situation And Tendency In The Rural Labor Force

This article in accordance with the sixth census data and the China Statistical Yearbook and Sichuan Statistical Yearbook and other relevant data of Sichuan analysis the rural labor supply and demand situation, and sub based on the analysis of supply and demand trends for the future.Predict the trends of labor supply, the article the use of age-shifting algorithm,"Six P" population base, first predicted the movement of the volume of the entire rural population under confinement, and on this basis, the use of the labor force participation rate forecast for the next20years the number of labor supply.Predict the demand for labor, the use of the relationship between labor demand and economic growth, Sichuan Province, the total future economic growth conditions were fitted using time series function, and then use the difference method Sichuan Provincial Economic growth in employment elasticity estimates, the relationship between economic growth and employment elasticity to calculate the total future demand for labor in Sichuan Province, according to the proportion of the rural labor force in the total workforce of the needs of the rural labor force in the future of Sichuan Province the total amount was calculated. The results showed that the future of Sichuan Province on rural labor demand will increase year by year.Contrast Sichuan rural labor demand and supply situation in the future can be drawn in the forecast period, Sichuan Province, the gap between supply and demand of the rural labor force will increase year after year, the shortage situation will gradually increase, especially in the low fertility program kinds of situation in the long term is still not reduced, accelerated aging, and social burden. Recommendations Sichuan Province by appropriate adjustments in the future fertility, as well as to attract foreign labor force and improve the rural surplus labor force of migrant protection mechanisms to achieve the equilibrium of supply and demand of labor in rural areas in order to promote stable and healthy development of the economy.