Resource-based Cities Green GDP Calculation And Simulation Analysis

To achieve harmony and sustainable development between resource environment and social economic is the common goal that human pursuit, especially with the constant development of economy and the ceaseless arise of resource depletion and ecological environment problems in the world range. Therefore, a road of sustainable development has become the common goal all over the world, yet green national economic accounting system is the important way to achieve the great goal.As a national energy and chemical industry base, Yulin, extensive pattern of economic growth, the output of mineral resources become the main driving force of economic development. Therefore, the sustainable development between energy and ecological environment is the important guarantee to realize the social sustainable development in Yulin. In order to promote the sustainable development of social economic, this paper accounting the cost of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation in the process of economic development during2001-2010, and take the resources environmental costs into the current GDP, consequently draw the Green GDP during2001-2010years. Then, the paper also analyzes the spatial characteristics of resources and environment cost and green GDP in recently10years. In addition, to establish SD model, based on the system dynamic theory, to simulation the trend of social economy, environment pollution, and energy mineral reserves respectively. Finally, based on the analysis result above, we put forward the control countermeasures to achieve resources environment and social economy coordinated and sustainable development. The main conclusions as follows:(1) The natural resources depletion cost increased from1.3433825billion yuan to3.3513202billion yuan during2001～2010. While the environmental pollution cost increased from352.8985million yuan to688.9556million yuan. Green GDP increased from10.41633billion yuan to170.21102billion yuan, and its proportion of GDP increased from85.90%to96.89%.(2) The natural resources depletion cost present an increasing trend after first down rising trend during2001～2010. And former resources depletion cost is mainly land depletion cost, while later depletion cost is mainly mineral resources depletion, of all counties in Yulin, the increasing trend of natural resource depletion in Shenmu and Fugu counties are the most obvious. The environmental pollution control cost shows ascendant trend in recently10years, and Yuyang, Shenmu, and Fugu are the first three large cost. From the GDP structure in each district and county, the resource depletion cost is greater than the environmental pollution cost, besides Suide county, Jia county, Qingjian county, and Zizhou county, which account for that energy development intensity is increasing in recent years, and economic growth is at the cost of a large number of local resources consumption.(3) From the dynamic change of ecological service value (ESV), the trend of each district and county is identified with the whole city from2001to2010. Except2006and2007, the ESV presents a declined trend. From the change of each county, ecological service value in the northern six counties change significantly greater than the six counties in the southern. We can draw a conclusion, based on the analysis above, that the energy development activities in the northern six counties increased local ecological environment changes under the same background of global climate change, which resulting in the double stacking effect of human activities and climate change.(4) This paper established the social and economic subsystem, environment subsystem, and energy subsystem based on the system dynamic theory. The simulation results show that:①GDP shows strong growth trend, and the per capita GDP is also showing rapid growth trend under the background of steady increase of population. In the view of the added value of three types of industry, the second industry has the largest and fastest growing added value and added value rate, and the third industry present a steady increase trend, while the first industrial added value growth slowly and possess the minimum proportion.②All kinds of pollutant emissions will continue to rise, of which industrial dust emissions increases fastest, industrial wastewater emissions take second place, and smoke emissions growth minimum.③with the development of economy, the resources reserves of coal, petroleum, and natural gas will fall rapidly, of which coal reserves decline fastest, followed by petroleum, and natural gas decline minimum.(5) The dilemma that Yulin faced in the process of economic development is: development mode is too extensive, economic structure imbalance, low resources use efficiency, and the ecological environment problem is severe, etc. In order to achieve the great goal of ecological civilization construction, based on the analysis of difficulties and principles above, we put forward several regulate and control countermeasures:change the existing cadre evaluation system, perfecting the green national economic accounting system, speed up the adjustment of economic structure, vigorously develop circular economy, to improve efficiency of resource utilization, rational development and local resources, protecting the regional ecological environment, etc.The innovation points of this study are as follows:(1) the cost accounting of resources and environment in this study is for energy development zone, and focus on the accounting of energy resources and environmental pollution, providing reference for the construction of green system in resource cities.(2) Broaden the scale of resources and environment cost accounting. Previous research mainly focused on the national or provincial scale, yet county economy is the basic unit of our country, therefore, this paper uses county scale for accounting, witch enriches the contents of green economy accounting in our country.