Research On Sustainable Utilization For Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Ya’an Based On System Dynamics

Taken the harmony of economy-resources-environment-societysystem as the principle, guided by the concept of sustainable development system, basedon the analysis of the connotation of land carrying capacity, and the research progressand method at home and abroad, this dissertation combined with the practical land usesituation of Ya ’an, built a dynamic simulation model for land comprehensive carryingcapacity which takes economy, technology, social humanities, land resources andecological environment as the main factors. Based on strictly follow the constructionprinciple, the system model consists of75variables, as a clear hierarchy model, themodel is divided into land comprehensive economic sub-models, social sub-models,land resources sub-models and ecological environment sub-models for Ya’an city andbearing capacity of model construction, form the main structure of the landcomprehensive carrying capacity.Secondly, this study carried on the dynamic simulation design and optimization.Comprehensive analysis of the comprehensive carrying capacity, system modeling,system boundary, causality, system structure and the sensitive parameters of land,dynamic simulation scheme of the system can be divided into this study status quo ofthe continuation of the scheme design, the open source solution design, throttling plandesign and sustainable design. Through design and optimization, the dynamicsimulation carries out the sustainable solution which is the most reasonable, mosteffective, and the evaluation study which is on the land comprehensive carryingcapacity of Ya ’an. Based on that, author gets the results of carrying capacity evaluationand predicts the future development trend of the carrying capacity by the positive andnegative factors of land comprehensive carrying capacity. Studies show that in2009the land comprehensive carrying capacity in thecondition of critical overload, through regulation of sustainable solutions, in2015, morethan2020land carrying capacity are in balance state, shows that this research for designoptimization, and practical. Beyond the planning period in2030, according to theexisting standard calculation, the evaluation result is more than the balance of the state.Compared with the result of the2015and2020, it was poorer. According to thedevelopment trend, if not controlled, it will become increasingly close to the critical state ofoverload. Results prove the regulation function of sustainable solutions, proves that using systemdynamics method is scientific and objective actuality, accord with the actual situation of the socialand economic development, but also illustrate the importance of the policy sensitivity factors, andcontinue to guarantee the sustainable development of economy, society, resources and environment.Finally, based on the analysis on the status of the model, author puts forwardcorresponding measures and suggestions such as ascending the land comprehensivecarrying capacity, and promoting the sustainable use of land. Through the research tofind out the land comprehensive carrying capacity for formulating reasonable policiesand scientific land use planning, strengthening the management of land resource, andprovide the scientific basis to ensure the sustainable utilization of land resources.