Study On The Evolution Trend Of Eco-Production-Life System Carring Capacity Of Turpan Oasis

Oasis is the human survival and development base in arid areast.The development of the oasis will pressured bearing capacity of oasis, and the bearing capacity is the one of the most important factors constraint the oasis development and contruction. Capacity of oasis system is the result of mutual coupling by ecological economic capacity and social capacity. According coupling between ecological economic and social system, establish the system dynamics model to explore the optimal development planning mode in Oasis.According to results of previous studies, in order to coordinate the sustainable development is oasis research background, choose 84 parameters, built a system dynamics software STELLA model, according to the comparing the simulation results and analysis of historical data, validate the model reliability. Turpan Oasis belongs to arid areas for the study, which was introduced into the evaluation index system of sustainable oasis carrying capacity to regulate a variety of parameters, built four development model according to different development mode, for the oasis ecology economy and social bearing capacity of dynamic simulation and analysis.The main results are:In this paper,we do simulation analysis on the ecological system economic system and social system carrying capacities in Turpan oasis.The result show that In the current model development of the total population with the Turpan region in 2030 year will reach 787,090 people. On the basis of the more than in 2010 year increased by 165,391 people. and an average annual population growth of 7681 peopel. The urbanization rate dropped to 37 percent. GDP reached 1548×108 yuan. fixed asset investment growth to 1096 × 108 yuan. 2010 year total water resources 12.21×108m3, arable land 35204 ha, but 2030 year the total water resources dropped to 4.13×108m3, arable land dropped to 27667 ha. Data can be displayed, population, economic subsystems have reached the goals of social development. But under the promotion of economic and population growth, water resources and arable land area decreased continuously,and the irrigation area is growing, resources development far beyond supply. The water resources carrying capacity and land carrying capacity was decline.Finally, the scheme looked, Than the traditional development model will savings about 400 million water resorces, arable land increased about 42,407 ha area.Meanwhile, the water resources carrying capacity economic capacity and arable land carrying capacity also in relative equilibrium.2001-2030 years,Water Resources Carrying Capacity index between 0.34-0.35,Carrying capacity index of arable land between 0.52-0.53, Carrying capacity index of economic growth from 0.47 to 0.95.