Modelling The Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Land Based On The Social Person Assumption

Researches on land carrying capacity provide important references for the formulation of regional socio-economic development strategy,the preparation of spatial planning,the adjustment of land use structure,and the optimization land use layout.So this thesis is dedicated to the comprehensive evaluation of land resources carrying capacity at the city and county level.Based on the systematic pectination and comparison of existing land carrying capacity evaluation paradigms,this thesis insisted on the epistemological stand of "existing and knowable”of land carrying capacity and then chose and applied the multi-factors comprehensive evaluation paradigm to the evaluation practice at the city and county level.By constructing the three-factor analysis framework of "carried person-medium-carrier" and introducing the "social person" to represent the carried person,the multi-factors comprehensive evaluation paradigm had been developed and improved,and an evaluation model had been established accordingly.Both of the paradigm and model had been applied in Wenzhou City,Zhejiang Province to the evaluation,forewarning and regulation of land resources carrying capacity.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the pectination and comparison of existing land carrying capacity evaluation paradigms.In accordance with Kuhn's paradigm theory,four main evaluation paradigms of land carrying capacity had been explored and combed,namely,the evaluation paradigm based on limiting factors,on comprehensive multi-factors,on reference areas,and on ecological footprints.And then did comparative analysis of these four evaluation paradigmsform the perspective of specific time and space scale.It is found that the values,scientific problems and technical systems are different due to the varying of practical problems faced under different spatial and temporal conditions.By itself,there is no merit or demerit in the four evaluation paradigms of land carrying capacity as they are all proposed at certain time and space background,targeted on specific services and applicative in some situations.Second,clarifying the epistemological stands of land resources carrying capacity evaluation and standardizing these stands.By combing,comparing,selecting and integrating these epistemological stands,it is pointed out that the carrying capacity of land resources should be regarded as the potential to be influenced and regulated by human activities.The evaluation of land resources carrying capacity at the city and county level is not to know the carrying "ceiling" of land resources,but to identify and diagnose the imbalance between human and land,and then promote the coordinated development of human and land through land regulating and optimizing quantitatively,structurally,and spatially.And these epistemological stands are crystallized as concrete evaluation criteria from the perspective of evaluation systems,methods,data and results.Third,the improvement of evaluation paradigm of land carrying capacity based on comprehensive multi-factors,along with the establishment of land resources carrying capacity evaluation model at the city and county level under the guidance of the affore-improved paradigm.Strictly defining the connotation of carrying capacity and establishing a systematic view on comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources,the multi-factors comprehensive evaluation paradigm had been developed and improvedmainly throughintroducing the "social person" to represent the carried person and then constructing the three-factor analysis framework of "carried person-medium-carrier".Fourth,the characterization and quantification of "social person",the representation of carried person.Under the comprehensiveness,regionalism,dynamics,correlation,and averageness principles,the "social person" is characterized from the aspects of life,production and ecology,and corresponding attribute indexes are designed to quantifying the "social person".By applying the basic data of Whenzhou City,we assigned the value to every attribute indexes of "social person" at two evaluation time points,in 2015 and 2020 respectively.Fifth,re-analyzing the multi-functions of land as a carrier and re-distributing the land categories based on the characterization and quantification of "social person",and describing and measuring the medium elements of comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources-the land products and land ameliorants.Specifically,the land is re-divided into six categories,namely,agricultural land,residential land,traffic land,commercial service and public service land,industrial and warehouse land,ecological land;the land products include agricultural products,ecological products,economic products;the land ameliorants contain building space and road mileage.In this framework,the supply potential of land products and land ameliorants in 2015 and 2020 respectively were estimated using the basic data of Wenzhou City.Sixth,calculating the carrying capacity of "social person".Applying the value assignment of the attributes of "social person" and the estimation of land medium output,combining with the improvement of weight determination methods on the principle of "giving play to dominant factors and restricting inferiority factors",and summarizing the comprehensive weightiness step-by-step form“11 one-sided person"to "life person",to "production person",to "ecological person",and then to "social person",it gets the results that the land in Wenzhou City can carry 9.22-10.66 million people till 2015 and 10.38-11.98 million people till 2020.Seventh,conducting alarm instance analysis and sensitivity analysis.According to the comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation of land resources at the city and county level,this thesis constructed an alarm instance framework through the exploration and extension of the evaluation outcomes,and designed diagnostic model which contains alarm instance needing strict control,open alarm instance and restrictive alarm instance,to diagnose the alarm situation.Then,this thesis went to construct sensitivity measure method in light of land use structure regulation,land use intensity regulation,land use space regulation and lastly "social person" demand guidance,to do sensitivity analysis.Both the alarm instance analysis and the sensitivity analysis were applied to further excavating the evaluation outcomes of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Wenzhou City so as to provide specific references for spatial planning proposals.The improved evaluation paradigm of land carrying capacity based on comprehensive multi-factors and the following evaluation model have basically done the implementation of epistemological stands and criteria of land resources carrying capacity at the city and county level,presenting satisfactory application in Wenzhou City,Zhejiang Province.