Tianjin Operating Real Estate Land Supply Forecasting

Land supply plan is the basis of the scientific use of land resources, and the establishment of long-term effective land supply system is to achieve long-term stability and prosperity of the real estate market. Prediction of the supply of land is the technical support of the land supply plan, and only scientific and rational way to predict the amount of land supply can make the development of land supply plan efficiently and effectively regulate the real estate market to maintain the real estate market long-term stable development.On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the operational status of the real estate market in Tianjin, this article drawging on research methods at home and abroad, sorted out Tianjin’s supply of land in "Eleventh Five-Year" period, real estate transactions, as well as major socio-economic indicators statistics, using statistical analysis model, BP neural network model to predict Tianjin supply of land in " Twelfth Five-Year ".This article firstly defined the basic ideas and principles than should be followed in predicting demand and supply in operating real estate. Then, according to the accessibility principle of quantifiable, establish the factor system of residential and commercial real estate demand, supply, and use gray relational model to filter out the key factor. Based on the regression model theory, make non-linear regression curve using fitting tool in matlab software, and get predictive value of single factor in "Twelfth Five-Year".In this paper, a three-tier structure of the BP neural network model is used to prodict demand and supply of residential and commercial real estate. Data of residential and commercial real estate in "Eleventh Five-Year" period inputing to the network were trained to learn, and according to the error of network performance, determine the appropriate number of middle layer neurons. Then, the regression of the "Twelfth Five-Year" period of residential and commercial real estate data were inputed to the trained network to obtain a predicted value of demand and supply of residential and commercial real estate.Predictive value of the amount of land for residential and commercial real estate can be computed by demangand supply of residential and commercial real estate with an average floor area ratio. By the average of floor area ratio of Tianjin in "Eleventh Five-Year" period and the possible proportion of the regional operating real estate sites in "Twelfth Five-Year", comprehensivly get the floor area ratio in the corresponding year. The predictive value of the residential and commercial real estate can be obtained through the floor area ratio.Ensuring that the residential and commercial real estate sites prediction is more reasonable and more guiding significance, based on cumulative completion and sales of residential and commercial real estate in Tianjin "Eleventh Five-Year" period, cut the stock of correction in accordance with the principle of balance between the total amount system scientifically, so that in future land of supply and demand will make a balance of residential and commercial real estate market. What is more, give some advice to "Twelfth Five-Year" plan of land supply of residential and commercial real estate.