The Innovation Of Preparation And Positive Research For The Annual Supply Plan Of City Profit-oriented Land

Purpose of research: Land supply plan is an important way for government to macroscopically control the real estate market, and to promote the orderly development of real estate market and reasonably efficiective land use.To determine the annual land supply rationally is a good leverage to regulate the real estate market. It is also important for maintaining a balance of land supply, keeping the market price stability, preventing the real estate bubble.The 21^st order by The Ministry of Land and Resources clearly demands that civic and prefectural governments must adopt land supply plans, and supply land basing on the plans.However, the research of land supply plans methodology in China is still in its infancy and lack methodology system. The methodology and technology routes and understanding of control mechanism of land supply plans are disparate in different places. The land supply plans throughout are not comparable. There is an urgent need for the systematic research of annual land supply plan methodology, and make an operating model about reasonable urban land annual supply.Research method:This paper firstly analyzed the interaction between land demand and real estate market demand, then with the analysis of the influence factors in real estate market and the study of how to determine a reasonable demand for urban real estate market effectively, innovatively made an operating model about reasonable urban land annual supply, which based on real estate market demand. It also analyze some technical points, like the calculation methods of model parameters. Meanwhile, it took Shaoxing as an example to proof the rationality and feasibility of the model.This paper has five parts.Part I explored the current state of China's real estate market and the development of land supply plan management, affirmed the value of the operating model about reasonable urban land annual supply, and summarized domestic and foreign research results and practical experience.Part II focused on the analysis of real estate market demand influence factors, respectively analyzed influence factors of residential and commercial housing demand, aimed at establishing the parameter system on real estate market analysis and assessment, which fully reflected the demand changes in the real estate market.Part III studied the interaction between land demand and real estate market demand and its rules, made an operating model about reasonable urban land annual supply, which based on real estate market demand. It also analyzed the calculation methods of model parameters, solved some technical points.Part IV took Shaoxing as an example, made land annual supply plan 2004-2008 in Shaoxing urban area, analyzed the feasibility of land supply plan and the demands of land reserves, proposed some policy recommendations about annual land supply plan operating.Part V took estimate of the feasibility of the annual plan,and do farther analyse of the impact of the implement of the plan.