Population Age Structure Based On The Theory Of Precautionary Savings And Household Savings

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic development in the fore an important phenomenon residents residents excessive savings enthusiasm generated high savings rate, and the rate of the consumer remains in the doldrums phenomenon. Reform early in1978, of the total amount of household savings deposits only21.06billion yuan, according to statistics to the end of2011, savings deposits of urban and rural residents in China reached nearly35.2trillion yuan (household deposits), residents’ savings deposits total19781671.42. In contrast, in1978, China’s GDP was364.52billion yuan, the data to2011reached47.1564trillion yuan, nearly1978129.37times. The growth rate of the economy is much less than the growth rate of total household savings. To produce contrast to this, the residents increased savings enthusiasm unusual for consumption rather conservative, people’s consumption growth rate has been lower than the GDP growth rate. Long this situation will lead to many adverse situations:for example, the lack of consumer long-term, over-reliance on foreign markets; relying on investment in export-driven, power is clearly insufficient; uncoordinated system of income distribution and economic development, residents’ income gap is growing; and The interaction of the high investment rate and low consumption rate will have a huge economic risk. How to promote consumer spending to expand domestic demand, to ensure healthy, stable and rapid development of the national economy, reduced by expanding domestic demand has become a hot issue since the international economic market.Since1978, China has entered a transition period, various systems are obvious and profound changes, the most obvious point is the allocation of resources mainly from the planned regulation gradual transition to the market under the national macro-control. Accompanied by a change in the way of the allocation of resources, the various systems also will be changed or adjusted, such as the employment system, social security system, the education system, the housing system, the system is closely related to the life of urban residents have undergone unprecedented changes. These changes, our productivity in the long run will make great liberation, China’s economy is so huge development, but at the same time we can not fail to see that a variety of factors affect residents’ income and expenses expected consequent the instability, such as in the process of reform of the employment system, social security system, the education system, the housing system has not been fully amorphous and extremely imperfect, financial markets still in turmoil confusion, residents had full expectations of the future is not stability concerns.The age structure of the population has also undergone a huge change. Parts of China in1953, started to implement the family planning policy for decades, control population growth by external forces, our country’s birth rate dropped sharply, the improvement of the health conditions of our population mortality also declined substantially, with the attendant decline child dependency ratio. China is gradually aging society. By2011, the number of China’s elderly population rose to123million people, accounting for9.1%of the total population proportion. According to the relevant authorities expected the data show that in2020, China’s elderly population will be over240million people, the elderly population will account for17.17%of China’s total population.2050, China’s total elderly population will be over400million, the aging level will be extended to30%.The purpose of this study is based on the theory of precautionary savings, starting from the point of view of the study of consumer savings motive put forward the hypothesis, that the macro on the basis of changes in the age structure of our population will affect our consumer savings behavior in the micro. And provide theoretical and empirical basis for the qualitative and quantitative methods of empirical research.In this paper, the first chapter combing the classic theory of consumer savings, including the theory of absolute income and relative income hypothesis, life cycle and permanent income hypothesis, and the theory of precautionary savings. After several common precautionary savings model and home and abroad based on the study of the theory are reviewed. Previous studies, there are some issues, including: the lack of a macro, a representative time series analysis, and some research and sub-urban and rural areas, or only the town, the analysis of the case in rural areas, the lack of comparative; limited to economics, neglect the role of China’s population age structure of the population, including the factors in the economic life.Chapter II briefly introduces the overall development of China’s population, the changes of the changes in the age structure of population trends and the household savings rate, final consumption rate, the ratio of consumption to GDP, the rate of investment and other economic indicators, and focused on the instability of our residents the impact of the economic life of that the a relatively cautious coefficient generation is closely related to the instability of the income and expenditure. Since1978, China has entered a transition period. In this process, China’s various systems are obvious and profound changes, the most obvious thing is the allocation of resources from mainly planned regulation gradual transition to the market under the national macro-control. Accompanied by a change in the way of the allocation of resources, the various systems also will be changed or adjusted, such as the employment system, social security system, the education system, the housing system, the system is closely related to the life of urban residents have undergone unprecedented changes. It is because of these changes, leading to a variety of factors affecting residents’ income and expenses expected consequent instability.Chapter comprehensive filtering algorithm selected urban and rural consumption expenditure data, the use of the state-space model estimated1979to2011residents precautionary savings motive strength (relatively cautious coefficient) changes in the timing. The results show that, both from the country as a whole and look at sub-urban and rural Chinese residents are there strong caution from a relatively cautious coefficient trend point of view, whether in urban or rural areas, reform and opening up since, in particular, was ninety years, Chinese residents precautionary savings motive strength shown a steady upward trend. Since2007, the relatively cautious coefficient is higher than the previous value. The Chapter selected indicators of population age structure, income instability, the effective interest rate, the Engel coefficient index as the dependent variable regression analysis, urban, rural, relatively cautious coefficient. The conclusion shows that the The relatively cautious coefficient child dependency ratio and the Engel coefficient negative relationship with the elderly dependency ratio, income stability and the effective interest rate is positively correlated. Changes in the age structure of the population in China is an important factor in China’s consumer spending is cautious.The fifth chapter, from the point of view to the improvement of the social security system, in several aspects of the education system, the health care system, the reform of the housing security system, employment and reduce unemployment, to make a few policy recommendations aimed at improving the current household savings rate is too high The consumption rate is too low. Mainly include:increased investment in education, reduction of the burden of household expenditure on education; adoption of concrete measures to reduce the fees for higher education standard; expand the scope of health insurance, the improvement of the medical security system; Drug zero difference on a good job in the medical and health system; improve health workers wage levels, especially primary care workers salary; reduce the proportion of residents personally liable; establish a sound integration of the basic medical insurance system for urban and rural residents; develop flexible rental reasonable supply of affordable housing policy; establish and improve housing protect the information management system. Improve the accuracy of the statistics and information disclosure to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; establishment of the unemployment insurance system in line with China’s national conditions; establish the field of employment information management; encourage the export of labor services, to find a new squeeze for the country’s employment situation the way out.Used research methods:qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis combined:a better analysis of the nature of the study, the more convincing than the simple selection of a qualitative analysis; empirical research method:the basis of existing scientific theories, The selection of modern scientific equipment and instruments, including a variety of scientific tools to analyze the causal relationship between the sample data, based on theoretical assumptions. Theoretical research to provide reliable evidence; combination of the number of research and descriptive study:combined with rich connotation by describing a simple data size, changes in trends, scale descriptive language instructions.The innovation of this paper is to:research methods different from scholars, the choice can be quantified residents precautionary motive strength Dynan model to examine the strength of China’s urban and rural residents precautionary savings motive dynamic trend of changes in the use of the standardized measurement method, and the selection of the creative The metrics of the Chinese population, changes in the age structure of China’s urban and rural areas is relatively cautious coefficient values as the dependent variable. Changes in China’s population age structure is an important reason to cause consumer caution.