A Research On Perfecting Social Financing Volume Statistics Caliber

In these years, China’s economic and financial environments have changed a lot. And even with deepening reform of financial system in our country, the development of the financial sector has been growing by leaps and bounds, and due to this development, China’s real economy diversified its financing ways. And because of broadened financing channels, the innovation of financial tools, financial service level has been greatly improved. The ratio of direct financing in our country’s real economy financing structure occupies a larger proportion than indirect financing does. And non-bank financial institutions also have sprung up in the new financial situation and gradually played a bigger role in supporting the real economy’s development. In such a financial situation, credit ceiling can not reflect the total amount of social financing completely and entirely. If monetary authority continue putting focus on the one index only and taking credit ceiling as the monetary policy intermediate target, it will definitely weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy of our country and also have bad influence on our macro financial control. This kind of situation calls for a new index which is much better than credit ceiling in reflecting the complete financial support relationship between finance and economy.In the end of2010, the Central Bank had put forward a new concept named "the total amount of social financing". After that, an article had been published in2011to explain the connotation and practical meaning of total social financing volume and propose to make it as China’s intermediate target of monetary policy for the first time. Afterwards, a very warm discussion about the feasibility of the new concept started around in China’s economic industry.After probing into the true meaning of the connotation and statistical caliber of "total social financing volume", people can find out the new proposition doesn’t reflect the concept of "total amount". Informal finance has been left out totally. This is a very large shortage for the new proposition. However, informal finance has given great support to small and medium enterprises, rural finance in some degree, and also played an essential supplement part to the formal finance section in China. It also have both good and bad effect on macro economics through affecting such macro indexes as GDP、CPI and so on. And GDP and CPI indexes can also be the monetary policy ultimate goals. So if monetary authority plans to make "the total social financing volume", with informal finance missing, as the intermediary goals in place of credit ceiling, it will undoubtedly weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy of our country and also have bad influence on our macro financial control. And finally through empirical research, the dissertation demonstrated that "total social financing volume" which includes informal financing, as the intermediate target, has better relativity with ultimate goals compared to credit ceiling and "total social financing volume". So informal financing must be taken into consideration to be brought into the statistical caliber of the new concept of "Total social Financing Volume". Only in this way, can the new concept be worthy of its name, and monetary authority formulate and implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively.