The Selection Of Intermediate Target Of Monetary Policy

In recent years,the problem of "Economic dereality and deficiency" in China's economy has been manifested in the increase of the added value of the financial sector,the expansion of the gap between M1 and M2,and the heat of real estate.As an important method of regulating economic and finance,monetary policy should play the role of guiding the economy to "take off the virtual reality" and enhance the ability of finance servicing real economy.This article is devoted to exploring the intermediary target of monetary policy that promotes the monetary policy service real economy.Based on the analysis of the current existence of the "Economic dereality and deficiency" problem,we first do some theoretical analysis of money supply,social financing scale and Shibor.Then,we use the VAR model to do the empirical analysis of relationship with added value of industry,total import and export and CPI index in order to compare them.The result of empirical analysis is that the effect of money supply on real economy is obvious,while Shibor also has certain effect,and the effect of social financing is not obvious.Finally,it is proposed that the money supply should continue to be used as the intermediary target,the scale of social financing should be expanded,and financial regulation should be strengthened and so on.