Comparative Study Of The Relationships Between The Monetary Policy Intermediate Targets And The GDP

This thesis aims to compare the relationships between the three indicators and the GDP,and then draw a conclusion which indicator is more suitable for the intermediate target.A comparative analysis of the correlation between three indicators and the GDP is carried out firstly.By calculating the correlation coefficients of the annual and quarterly data from 2002 to 2017,it is concluded that the social financing and the loan both have an advantage,and the broad money supply is at the end.Next,vector autoregressive models are established for the quarterly data from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2018,which satisfiy the condition of models' stability.Then,this thesis analyzes the impulse responses and variance decompositions to draw conclusions.In the long-term or short-term,the broad money supply is more advantageous than the loan.From the perspective of instantaneous effects,the social financing is greater than the broad money supply.In the long run,both the broad money supply and the loan have greater advantages than the social financing.The final conclusion of this thesis is that the social financing and the broad money supply can be jointly used as the intermediate target of the monetary policy.Lastly,this thesis proposes to improve the statistical measurement of the broad money supply and the social financing,and strongly deepen the reform of the financial supply side and the reform of the interest rate marketization.