Influencing Factors About Price Fluctuations Of Vegetables In China

Vegetable prices not only dredge vegetables circulation channel is the main power, butalso adjust the producers and consumers, to deal with powerful lever for state, the collectiveand personal relationships. In recent years, due to natural disasters, the commodity market andpart of investment money into, the influence of vegetables often impact on market supply anddemand. Unreasonable price fluctuates greatly influenced the normal consumption life ofresidents and the interests of the farmers. Therefore, based on China’s vegetable pricesfluctuation characteristics as a starting point. First of all, based on the theory of supply anddemand in the western economics theory of the influence factors of the price fluctuation onChina’s vegetable analysis; Second, using data comparative analysis method and the ARCHclass models in econometrics analysis methods respectively on China’s vegetable prices andvolatility characteristics are studied; Third, using the factor analysis method of econometricmodel and vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis method, the influence factors of pricefluctuation on China’s vegetable empirical analysis; Finally, according to the results of theanalysis stability of vegetable price fluctuation in China countermeasures and Suggestions.On the present situation and the topic of this paper is based on literature review. Againstvegetable prices in the existing problems of study, relevant scholars generally only from theperspective of theory or fluctuations in the price of vegetables in China from the empiricalAngle characteristics, influence factors, the impact of done beneficial research and the trendof the future. Based on summarized research progress on fluctuations in the price ofvegetables in our country, and combing China’s vegetable prices fluctuation influence factors,on the basis of supply and demand theory and econometric model analysis method on thebasis of western, initially formed a systematically from the Angle of combining theory andempirical research analysis framework of vegetable price fluctuations affect factors in ourcountry, to research the problem of vegetable price fluctuations has certain theoretical value.Definition and theory of interpretation is the theoretical basis of this research. In thischapter focuses on analysis of vegetables price and price fluctuations, on the basis of basicconnotation, defining the scope of this article’s research, and this paper studies the theoreticalbasis of a brief overview. Research shows that: in this paper, the research scope of freshvegetables, namely without cooking, still keep its original flavor and nutritional ingredients,and makes an exuberant vegetable respiration and other life activities. Have to pass to growvegetables is a kind of agricultural products to produce, its production is heavily influencedby natural factors; Vegetables are balanced stability and diversity of characteristics; And vegetables rot easily damaged during the transit. Vegetables price refers to the freshcharacteristics of the value of the commodity’s performance on the currency. Vegetable pricefluctuations, it is to point to by the domestic vegetable total supply and total demand, theinfluence of the vegetable market average price high and low volatility in the country.According to the length of observation period, can be divided into daily fluctuations, weekly,seasonal fluctuations and the annual fluctuations, etc. This paper, taking the national18kindsof vegetables wholesale price index from2004to2012as the research object, mainly includes:leaf vegetables, root, root, melon seeds, beans, solanaceous fruit, green onion, garlic andpotato. Using western theory of supply and demand in China vegetable price fluctuationinfluence factors as the research of theoretical basis. Research conclusion of this paper is ableto sort out the main factors influencing the fluctuations in the price of vegetables and thetheoretical basis for further empirical analysis.Vegetable prices fluctuation trend and characteristics of research is the key content ofthis study. In this chapter, first of all, through to the average wholesale price of18species ofvegetables in2004-2012for comparative analysis, research from2004to2012of China’svegetable prices change trend, and then on the basis of the recent price volatilitycharacteristics is analyzed, from which sums up the general characteristics of the fluctuationsin the price of vegetables. Research shows that:2004-2012average six vegetables wholesaleprices sharply rising trend, but the different of the price of vegetables fluctuates trend presentdifferent characteristics. First of all, the average wholesale price of18species of vegetablesaround the average wholesale prices fluctuate throughout the year. Lettuce leaf vegetables,root root piece of ginger, Onions and garlic, garlic, melon vegetables balsam pear, beans ofbeans and peppers, green peppers solanaceous fruit wholesale price level is higher than thenational average annual average wholesale price, the rest of11kinds of vegetables arecabbage, rape, celery, Chinese cabbage, white radish, potato, onion, tomato, cucumber,eggplant, wax gourd is lower than the national average throughout the year. Secondly, garlic,ginger, volatility is the largest. Third, the age wave presents a certain regularity. In2005,2006,2008,2010and2010, most of the vegetables trend, and in2007,2009,2011, most ofthe vegetables is on the decline. Finally, vegetable prices present seasonal fluctuations.Price fluctuation in the GARCH model showed that6kinds of vegetables havesignificantly cluster, according to the price volatility is persistent strength comparison ofwhite gourd, Chinese cabbage, potatoes, onion price fluctuation in the sustainable than greenpepper and ginger; Green peppers, cabbage and potato price is affected by the external shocks,ginger and white gourd price is affected by the fluctuation of the variables in the past, the ginger will gradually spread the impact of price fluctuations, onion prices not only affected byvariables fluctuate in the past, also affected by the external shock; Although most vegetablesprice has obvious volatility cluster, but the risk return characteristics are not significant.Garch-m model indicates that only potatoes and ginger has the characteristics of high riskhigh return, although the other four kinds of vegetables will be due to the impact of naturaldisasters and other external factors caused by fluctuations in the price of unstable, butrestricted by factors such as cultivation techniques and habits, small-scale managementdetermines the characteristics of vegetable farmers can only is the receiver of the market price,so even if the prices of vegetables has significant volatility cluster, the risks and rewards ofvegetables planting characteristics is not obvious;6kinds of vegetables have a significantasymmetric effect, namely the previous vegetable prices up or down information’s influenceon the current price are asymmetric, which in addition to the Onions and green peppers, otherasymmetric effect on4kinds of vegetables are making price fluctuation is reduced, this is thevegetable consumption demand balance and unbalance of vegetables supply due to thecontradiction between.Our vegetable price fluctuations affect factor analysis is the key content of this study. Inthis chapter, first of all, based on relevant theories of western economics and agricultureeconomics, from the theoretical analysis of the fluctuations in the price of vegetables, andthen using the factor analysis model and vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the influencefactors of price fluctuation on China’s vegetable for empirical analysis. Research shows that:from the theoretical level to consider, our country fluctuations in the price of vegetablesfactors mainly include the supply factor, demand factor and other factors in three aspects.Among them, the supply factors including climate factors and cost factors; Demand factorsinclude income, consumer preferences and demand for exports; Other factors include inflationfactors, speculative factors, asymmetric information and policy factors. From the empiricallevel, factor analysis results showed that the2006-2011, our country fluctuations in the priceof vegetables, main influencing factors are: the macro factors and monetary factors, costfactor and demand factor, cost factors including cost of production and circulation cost factors;Pick up each factor from the factor analysis results in the most representative indicator, usingthe VAR model further concretely studies the determinants of the fluctuations in the price ofvegetables in our country. Results show that during2006-2011, fresh consumer price index(CPI), the gross domestic product (cumulative) values (GDP), our country fuel price, powerpurchase price index and means of agricultural production of vegetables in the influence ofprice change is larger; Over time, the purchasing prices of fuel, power index and price index of agricultural production contribution of fluctuations in the price of vegetables in Chinacontinue to increase; Price volatility is expected effect, in the early period of the producersand consumers can according to the price movements on future price expectations, thusaffecting the production and consumption behavior, and finally reflected in price changes;Inflation or currency the biggest impact factors on China’s vegetable prices fluctuations; Costfactors on the degree of fluctuations in the price of vegetables growing in our country.Conclusion and related policy recommendations was the essences of full text research.This chapter summarizes the main research conclusions above, based on the stablefluctuations in the price of vegetables in our country is put forward policy Suggestions.Research shows that: the government should further to stabilize vegetable prices as a toppriority, and create good conditions for the normal operation of vegetable market. On the onehand, government can be committed to reducing vegetables circulation, reducing circulationcosts, alleviate vegetable origin and XiaoDe contradiction between supply and demand; Onthe other hand can vegetable price information system should be established in order to timelytransfer effective information from the producer, thus guiding scientific planting vegetablesproducer. Specific content should be the following four aspects: strengthening the informationto guide and promote the diversification of marketing channels of agricultural products, statestrengthen macro-control and improve vegetable circulation system.