Study On The Risk Assessment Of Chinese Oil Companies’ Transnational M&A

China is the second only to the United States has become the second largest oil consumer. According to the China energy information network data display, china’s crude oil consumption has reached300million tons, and the foreign dependence rate is reach up to55%. It’s estimated that by2050, China’s oil supply and demand gap will reach300～350million tons. Therefore, China’s oil companies’ implementation of international business has become an inevitable choice. Because of China’s oil companies "going out" later, Lack experience to deal with the risk of transnational M&A. Besides oil companies of transnational M&A will be confronted with the influence of various factors as political sensitivity, capital investment, information asymmetry, environmental protection requirements and so on, has the very high risk. So China’s oil companies want to reduce failure has looked into how to conduct risk assessment accurately in a transnational M&A project.The dissertation first from the enterprise mergers and acquisitions, the enterprise transnational merger and acquisition, petroleum enterprise transnational merger and acquisition and so on three aspects introduced the study of the theory of risk assessment at home and abroad. Then nearly a decade for China’s big three oil companies’cross-border m&a success and failure case analysis. Delphi recognition method is used to identify Chinese oil risk factors of transnational m&a, then using analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and gray comprehensive evaluation method, established a risk evaluation model, the gray multi-level evaluation model. Using the evaluation model of risk factors on risk assessment, risk assessment, the results show that the external environment risk is the main risk of the project, the second is risk decision stage, implementation stage risk, and integration risk. The political risk is the main risk factors in the external environment risk; decision-making risk is priority in the decision stage risk factors, risk financing risk is the stage of implementation is more important, business integration is the key to integration stage risk factors to prevent risk. According to the risk assessment results puts forward and risk factors of risk treatment strategies and risk control strategy.