The Research Of Technology Evolution And Technology Forecasting Based On Patent Analysis

With the deepening of economic globalization, the global competition is becoming more and more explosive, the accurate grasp of technology development trends is the key to gain an advantage for a company in the competition. Patents are the most effective carrier of technology information, and modern academia and society focus on how to analyse patents effectively to make enterprises grasp the technological evolution and development trend accurately.This paper is about how to do theoretical and practical study of technology development and technology forecasting systematically by using patent analysis. In the first place, in the part of technology development research based on patent analysis, by using EXCEL, SQL SERVER, BIBEXCEL, UCNET, ICTCLAS comprehensively, we study on the number of patent applications, patent applicants, patent application areas, patent IPC and patent summaries to do a deep research of Chinese radar’s development. Second, in the technology forecast research part, which is made up of two parts:technology maturity forecast research and technical evolution direction forecast, we first make a review of main methods in the field of technology maturity forecast research, and then we select the number of patents curve, the number of patents for reducing cost curve, and patent measuring method to make a study on patent of automotive radar applied in our country,as a result, we conclude that Chinese automotive radar technology is going into recession. In the technical evolution direction forecast research part, we first make a deep research of TIRZ technology evolution theory and then the technical evolution direction of Chniese automovite radar is given directed by all kinds of evolutionary model and evolutionary line. We forecast that Chinese automotive radar will develop towards the direction of Integration and simplification in the future.