Research On Grain Import Trade On Basis Of Assuring China’s Food Security

Food is the basic demand to surrive, and food security is a complex system concerning of supply, demand, circulation and trade. Under the condition of open, food trade has become an important factor affecting food security, and China is a substantial food-importing country, thus the importance of import trade in ensuring food security is more and more prominent. This thesis starts in the context of food security, by combining the theoretical analysis, data analysis and the method of empirical analysis to study China’s grain supply, demand and the security of import trade. Finally, we put forward the countermeasures to make grain import trade more effective and sustaninable development.As the problem of food security, firstly, this thesis compares different food as well as the concept of food security, determines Rice, Wheat and Maize as the major research objects. Secondly, based on precious research, this paper analyzes domestic and international factors that influence food security to combine food security and import trade. And from import is an important approach to ensure the supply of food, import a lot has impact on food industry security, the existence of the "Big Effect" and high import dependence increases the uncertainty of food supply, we starts the theory analysis of import food security. Finally, this paper analyzes and establishes the regression model to predict the supply and demand of China’s food, then points out that China’s food security situation is good, but in the long run, the increase of grain production is more slowly than that of the demand, so we need to do food imports trade.For research on food import trade, this thesis starts on the basic of assuring food security, mainly through using a large amount of data to analyze the changes in China’s import amount and source, and summarizes the factors that affect the import trade trough grain production capacity, production and safety cost, supply and demand gap, national food policies and the international food supply situation. The important is that this paper analyzes China’s food import safety through the dependence of import, the influence of import for domestic food market and the availability and embargo risk of import, then points out that China’s food import safety is good, import will not pose a big threat to food security. There are still some problems, like big swings and high market concentration. So we need to lower the volatility, scatter import source, make full use of international grain market and improve circulation system and trade policy.