An Empirical Research On China’s Trade Structure Effects Of Changes In Exchange Rate-driven

In the background of the Federal Reserve to continue the current policy of quantitative easing, the RMB initiative to appreciation is not only ease the pressure of imported inflation, but also is because of our capital and financial account to form the double surplus situation. The attitude of other countries in this environment that China is required to exchange rate appreciation to reduce the double surplus situation are continue to strengthen, thus, externally pressure make our country’s macro-economic environment subject to greater volatility, and lead our internal and external economic asymmetric and form the offset phenomenon. Therefore the aim of this paper is to study the effect of exchange rate fluctuations to influence the degree concussion of our country that has a strong depend on foreign trade. Through which ways to transmit the effect and what kind of response the foreign trade structure to adjust and optimize itself mechanisms. How much the cause of China’s main trade way of import and export of direct and indirect role are all study.This paper selects the monthly date from2006to2011, and through construction multivariable system that contains a China’s GDP, the world’s GDP, foreign direct investment, international commodity prices, nominal exchange rate of RMB, and compared to test the nominal exchange rate of RMB and other changes in economic variables in China dynamic effects of trade structure. Through the historical observation of its exchange rate change in the trade structure and analysis are combined to research this perspective. Based on the theory and empirical of mutual penetration to construction the state space model and the panel system, in order to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuation between general trade and processing trade in total and the west and east area. According to classification, comparison, induction and integration of a variety of analysis channels mainly to carry out in-depth discussions.Conclusion:through state space model test found that the impact of exchange rate changes on general trade and processing trade has obvious change process, but after a long time, its effect will turn weak; Through the panel model division for the eastern, central and western regions of China’s exchange rate effects of changes in trade structure will find that there is a different effect in different regions. Combined with its corresponding situation to formulate policies and advise.