A Spatial Econometric Srudy Of Railway、Highway And Waterway On The Provincial TFP Growth

In the pursuit of quality of development today, China is gradually changing patterns of development and takes a sustainable path, then studying economic development by TFP is more reasonable.Transport infrastructure provides continuous power for the country’s economic development as a blood transfusion of national economic development and has been concerned by domestic and foreign scholars. It has positive significance for effective expansion of theoretical and empirical research to explore the role of transport infrastructure on total factor productivity (TFP) from the perspective of spatial correlation.Firstly, This paper calculates29Chinese provinces’TFP using stochastic frontier method from1978-201l.Secondly,it studies the impact of rail, river and road infrastructure on municipalities TFP by Spatial Durbin Panel Model and then makes further regression analysis on the relationship between them from the perspective of graded road, direct and indirect effects, time periods and sub-regional. Thirdly, this paper studies β-convergence and club convergence of TFP and analysis the influence of transport infrastructure on convergence.According to the test results, the study shows:(1) Provincial TFP data shows a strong positive space overflow making positive impact on adjacent areas’TFP and the overflow coefficient is16.18%.(2) Three large transport infrastructures are all produced positive role in promoting TFP, and the extent of the impact is Railway> Road> Waterways, and the coefficients are15.22%,4.76%,0.34%; rail, water and road’s overflow coefficient are13.62%,0.74%,-15.01%which shows that rail and water to the neighboring regions show positive overflow, however, road overflow effect was negative.(3) Provincial TFP over the years show a significant β conditional convergence and will eventually reach steady state, but transport infrastructures and their spillover showed no significant contribution to TFP convergence; Chinese industrial structure of binary negative effect on it, but the higher degree of region’s openness has produced a positive effect for TFP convergence of the region and adjacent areas.(4) Calendar TFP in the East and Midwest shows significant club convergence phenomenon. It has different convergence trend between coastal and inland areas.