Research On The Influence Factors Of Raw Milk Supply And Demand In Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang province is an important milk base in China. Dairy industry is developingrapidly, at the same time raw milk supply and demand contradiction is increasingly outstanding.To analyze the main factors influencing the raw milk supply and demand fluctuations inHeilongjiang province, and carry on the forecast. To ensure the interests of dairy farmers, andpromote the steady and healthy development of the dairy enterprise policy has certain referencesignificance.Analyze the raw milk supply and demand situation in Heilongjiang province. Thoughanalyze the cows distribution, raising scale and raw milk production, dairy processing capacity,profit and loss situation and dairy products consumption situation in Heilongjiang province.Concluded that raw milk production in Heilongjiang province increased year by year, but thedairy consumption ability is insufficient. The empirical analysis of the factors affecting the rawmilk supply and demand in Heilongjiang province. The Nerlove model and Demand dynamicequation were used to construct the supply and demand equation of raw milk production inHeilongjiang province. Then some factors that could affect raw milk market supply and demandare analyzed from the view of the elasticity. The results show that the elasticity of raw milkmarket long-term supply is larger than the elasticity of short-term supply as well as the elasticityof raw milk supply is larger than the elasticity of raw milk demand in Heilongjiang province.Prediction and analysis of effect factors of raw milk demand in Heilongjiang province. Based onresults obtained from analyzing dynamic demand of raw milk equation in Heilongjiang province,the Power model and Exponential model were used to predict lag of demand for raw milk, dairyproducts processing enterprises assets, lag issue of dairy products processing enterprises from2012to2015and the three variables showed a tendency to increase. The marginal demand ofdairy products processing enterprises assets and lag issue of dairy products processingenterprises were calculated and predicted from1997to2015. The results showed that themarginal demand of both increase firstly and then decrease during the study period, whichindicated that the dairy enterprises’ invested assets are in reasonable production stage in theprovince.Combed the above analysis and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions tocoordinate the supply and demand of raw milk in Heilongjiang province. Maintain the interests both of dairy farmers and dairy enterprises. Insufficient research mainly has an empiricalanalysis of the third chapter only won the data for15years during1997to2011, cannot be ruledout after data increase will affect the result of the model prediction. At the same time, thecombination of supply and demand analysis of raw milk, does not take into account the dairyfarmers in the process of breeding may appear the phenomenon of the milk and eat, and externalfactors leading enterprises to reduce demand for raw milk and other factors.