Prepared For Car Parts Based On Multi-Demand Factors

With China's rapid economic growth, gross national productivity plays an important seat of the car industry which is been actively developed. China's car sales 9.38 million in 2009, this number increased 8.6%,it is 10.19 million in 2010.The car sales in 2011 is expected to reach 12 million.The number of 2009 National private car ownership is 41,730,000, an increase of 18.1% in 2020 civilian cars in China will reach 140 million and more than the size. With the improvement of automobile penetration and the rapid development of the domestic auto market, the auto parts market has laid a good foundation. China auto industry more than 20% annual growth and this growth trend is accelerating and increasing year by year, strong growth in the automobile industry, the auto market after the tremendous space for development. The relationship between the cost of distribution, but there is a cost-share Qicheng from automotive parts. This put forward higher requirements management to production and auto parts enterprises, how to grasp the future demand trend forecasts of the faster and more accurate market of future demand through the establishment of better inventory management and efficient procurement system, become the dominant market pioneer, auto parts companies is the current problems to be solved.This paper present research results at home and abroad, through the status quo of China auto parts industry analysis, explained the importance of demand forecasting of spare parts. The entire vehicle life cycle needs of auto parts requirement direction and way to analyze and summarize the classification and analysis of the demand patterns, while many existing time series forecasting model is improved, the dynamic time series model of the static Of. Smoothness index in the traditional demand forecasting model, based on the static and dynamic weighted index, making the demand forecast demand more realistic features. Demand for spare parts for different types of forecasts in different ways, and thus to establish the corresponding dynamic time series model Meanwhile, the demand for auto parts supply, demand made available for analysis, and prepared to establish the final set model. Analysis prepared by the different set intervals, according to their characteristics create a backup set, respectively, model, and eventually united to form a complete equipment set model, the last instance of the model and methods introduced for discussion and verification. Automotive parts made available for supply of spare parts is in a very complex problem, the factors to be considered very much work in the real business needs to consider.