Research On The RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations In Post-crisis Era

At the beginning of the year2008, happened to turn the world upside down change in global economic situation. The reason is that the2008financial crisis, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis. Of course, in the face of the situation, countries have adopted corresponding measures to deal with. For example, China’s4trillion of investment, American’s quantitative easing policy. Then, after some years later, the world will take what kind of trend? Facing the exit American QE, how will we respond? Obviously, standard measure of a country’s economic strength, is the value of its currency, so, in this paper, based on the influence factors of RMB exchange rate to change how we should deal with the current economic situation. Firstly, because of the financial crisis to the arrival of the changes in the global economic environment brings, the RMB exchange rate change status and characteristics, analyze and influence on the two‐way fluctuation. This part is the core of the empirical analysis of part of the influence factors of RMB exchange rate. The analysis on the influence factors of RMB exchange rate from the regression model vector, factors which influence the verification: the international balance of payments (imports, exports), foreign exchange reserves, foreign direct investment, M2, GDP, import and export volume, the eight factors of residents consumer price index. Through the establishment of VAR model draws the conclusion: the impact of China’s exchange rate is the most important factor is the long‐term changes in foreign direct investment, import and export and gdp. Through variance decomposition, the main changes by their own influence, followed by exports, foreign direct investment and currency supply. Through the empirical analysis we can draw the following conclusions: changes in the exchange rate of GDP growth in China and China showed a negative relation; exchange rate changes in the money supply, foreign exchange reserves and the country appears to change the same relationship; the actual utilization of foreign direct investment amount of exchange rate changes and the country shows the same direction change relation. Also, the changes in the overall economic environment after the crisis era of the world for the impact of the RMB exchange rate is analyzed, including the quantification of the European debt crisis, USA easing and America debt ownership etc.. Conclusion: the further deterioration of the European debt crisis will make the continued appreciation of the RMB; China4trillion of investment in the period after the financial crisis is to play the role, but because of international pressure, the effect decreased gradually; America quantitative easing policy exit will lead to RMB devaluation phenomenon. Finally, based on the current economic situation, put forward the related policy suggestion.