Positive Copper Futures Market Effectiveness

In1990，Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was established, marking the formalestablishment China futures market. The futures market has experienced the developmentof more than20years, with the more steadily expanded scale, more perfect transactionorder, and more laws and regulations. As of2014January, Chinese futures market launcheda total of40futures varieties including Shanghai and Shenzhen300index futures andtreasury bond futures, futures trading varieties rich not only broaden the investmentchannels, but also promoted the development of the financial market. Shanghai copperfutures as China began trading futures varieties, attracting a large number of traders, themarket scale is larger and has a certain influence in the international. In this paper, thecopper futures as the object of study of the effectiveness of the futures market, plays apositive role in improving market efficiency.This paper is mainly based on the efficient market hypothesis theory, to validate theChinese copper futures market, I will use the guide relations between copper and lead fromthe spot price and from the discovery ability between domestic and foreign futures marketprice. I will be used the methods include cointegration test, Granger causality test,Grainger G-S model, impulse response model of error measurement, empirical model,correction. The results show that the copper futures market, spot price and the futures priceof a bi-directional leading relationship, the copper futures market is weak efficientconditions. Further comparative study found that, China copper futures market and Londonmetal futures market to maintain the long-term equilibrium relationship between thecopper futures market and having the ability of copper international influence. Finally,according to the empirical results, put forward the feasible suggestions for reference.