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Research On The Shock Effect Of U.S. Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy To The Chinese Economy

Posted on:2015-03-31Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H M CuiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330428970272Subject:Finance
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Since2008, due to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a collapse of theentire U.S. market, and then evolved into a global financial crisis. In order to addressthe financial crisis brought negative impact and curb further deterioration of the U.S.economy, the Fed since November2008launched a series of quantitative easingmonetary policy.In theoretical part, first of all, we study the Federal Reserve chairman BenBernanke and Willem Buiter of the London school of economics professor put forwardthe easy credit and properties of loose monetary policy. Combined with the currentnational quantitative easing monetary policy need to meet five conditions, a cleardefinition of the quantitative easing monetary policy has been made. Secondly, from thetransmission mechanism of monetary policy, analyzes the reasons for the failure ofmonetary policy: liquidity trap and monetary policy transmission mechanism of chainbroke, and to find the quantitative easing monetary policy reasons. Finally, in recentyears, several quantitative easing monetary policy and QE exit the U.S. have done anoverviewof thesystem.In empirical aspects, monthly data which including the U.S. money supply sevenindicators from November2008to September2013has been collected. In this paper,bybuilding the VAR model, the quantitative easing monetary policy impact on China’seconomic effects has been studied. Using impulse response functions and variancedecomposition obtain further empirical results. First of all, Confront of the U.S. moneysupply growth disturbances, Chinese money supply growth, GDP growth and CPIgrowth rates were first negative back forward, positive and negative responses. Earlygrowth of GDP immediately pull the Chinese trade, investment in fixed assets, totalretail sales of social consumer goods growth.The mid, it caused a dramatic fluctuations.The latter, its influence gradually stabilized. Secondly, in results of the U.S. moneysupply growth decomposition, the contribution of China’s consumer price index and theGDPare large, and the contribution of money supply is small. In results of GDPgrowthdecomposition, the contribution of the total consumption society and the total importand export are large, and the contribution of investment is small. Finally, the empiricalresults are analyzed and obtained the reason for these phenomena. China’s dependence onthe U.S. dollar was higher. Independence of monetary policy in China and the degreeof internationalization of the RMB should be improved. Social Investment efficiency islow."Troika" isnobetter fit to driveGDPgrowth.Based on the above analysis, policy recommendations have been made in howChina against the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy shocks. Such as acceleratethe process of internationalization of the RMB, optimize investment structure, fosternewcompetitiveadvantages of trade andso on.
Keywords/Search Tags:U.S. Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, Shock Effect, VAR model, Impulse Response, Variance Decomposition
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