The Exploration Of Calculating Methods Of The Loss Of Output Restricted By Soft Input

Hard input and soft input are the two prerequisites for production. When the hard input is established, the output depend on the quality of soft input, and the maximum output would be gained if the soft input were in the optimal state. In the real production, the soft input is hard to be in the optimal state, so the real output is less than the optimal out and the difference between the optimal output and the real output is the loss of output caused by the restraint of sort input.We estimate that it is reasonable to establish a Mathematical programming model, define the object function as the optimal output and make the solution of model as the optimal output. In the empirical analysis, it is difficult to use this method. In many years, the methods having been used include:Frontier production function method, DEA method, Production method and capital-output method and so on. The advantage of those methods is that they are easy to be used and the shortcoming is that they include many assumed conditions and that the estimation have pronounced differences from the real condition of economic growth.This paper attempts to get the long-term trend of the real output and the increment of capital output ratio through the method of H-P filter. The long-term trend represent relatively low long-term average level. The real quality of the soft input undulate around this long-term trend. During the time between the year of1978and2012, there exists one year when the quality of soft input is in the optimal condition. We assume that the optimal quality of soft input could be gained in all those years and calculate the optimal output. The advantages of this method is that firstly there is no need to estimate too much number and, hence, the error is tiny and, secondly, we can combine the long-term trend and the-short-term fluctuation. So we can get the calculating result that is more in line with the real condition of our country.This paper get the conservative estimation through those two methods, the real loss of output is much larger than results estimated by this paper. But despite that we still see that there is huge loss caused the low quality of soft input. This shows that the quality of our country’s soft input is still in the low level, and it has caused the huge restriction on output. Hence, we should improve the quality of soft input and make less the loss of output cased by the low quality of soft input.