| Under the background of global warming, the climate and environment of China change significantly. Climate warming caused the variety of disaster weathers (drought, heavy rain, hail, typhoons, and secondary disasters caused by these disasters) and these disasters always brought huge damages to our country’s economy. Meantime, geological disasters, especially earthquake also brought threaten to people’s life and security. The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Area is in the East monsoon climate zone, this zone has many kinds of meteorological disasters, and the area has located in the North China Plain seismic zone, earthquake disaster in history have caused a lot of damages. This region has high levels of economic development, large population and highly urbanization, so the impact of disasters on this area will be more profound and loss more incalculable. Therefore, this paper analyzed Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Area’s disasters and did trend judgment to the drought/flood disasters and earthquake. It has significance for these areas economy and social development, and it is also convenient for the government formulate disaster prevention and mitigation policy.This paper selected14Meteorology stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, the data covers from1957to2013, including the average daily temperature, precipitation and other meteorological data. Using linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test, ordinary Kriging interpolation, precipitation Z index, Standardized Precipitation Index, commensurability and Morlet wavelet analysis et.al to research the climate change background of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area and judged the extent of drought-flood and earthquake disasters. The results of this analysis combined with actual situation in the study area, finally pointed suitable disaster prevention and mitigation policy for these areas. The main results are as follows:(1) Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area was showing warming and drying trend during the past57years. For temperature changes all years round, the major trend is temperature rise and variation tendency rate shows large differences in four seasons. The basic spatial variation of these areas is latitude trend. Meantime, precipitation showing a decreasing trend during the past57years, and interannual variations changed hugely.(2) Within the study area’s drought disasters are slightly more than the flood disasters. In drought and flood disaster classification calculation, drought disaster year is the most. In commensurability, waterlog commensurability effect is most obvious. The result is 2014and2015, and it shows a significant7-8year’s period.The symmetry of droughts is obviously, and the results focused on2014,2015and2016.(3) Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan earthquake zone has good time symmetry in magnitude5or over, magnitude5.5or over, and magnitude6earthquakes. The prediction year of magnitude5or over earthquake is2014and2017by commensurability; magnitude6or over earthquake is2017. In addition, magnitude5,6or over earthquake’s most significant period is22year; magnitude6or over earthquake’s period is41year and55year. The results pointed year should be noticed.(4) Since the study area falls under seismic studies in small scale, the effect is not obvious in spatial symmetry space, but many studies have shown that the earthquakes in the seismic belt of northern China has the characteristics of space.(5) The historical seismic data of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan earthquake zone shows a certain link with sunspots (tend to occur in sunspots troughs); moreover, the earthquake in this area shows some tidal triggering effect which means there has tidal advantage phase, however, the seismic phases of the moon effect is not obvious.This paper has provide the basis for rich the research to determine trends in disasters, increase the cases of disaster, and guide the disaster prevention and mitigation. |
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