Estimation Of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Emission And Influence Factors In Shanxi Province

Climate warming has become the most urgent environmental issue at present with the growing density of greenhouse gases in atmosphere. About 70% of CH4 and 90% N2O in atmosphere are produced from agricultural activities and the transmission of land use, etc. Therefore, the study of agricultural greenhouse emission could provide data collecting for policy-making which facilitates sustainable development. In order to figure out the variation of agricultural greenhouse gas emission from 2005 to 2010, this dissertation has calculated the total emission amount of greenhouse gas in Shanxi province and has showed the spatio-temporal pattern of agricultural carbon emission based on the data in statistical yearbook of Shanxi province combined with specific statistical materials and survey data in the study area. The influence factors for the changes of greenhouse gas emission are analyzed based on the Kaya model and suggestions for reducing the emission of greenhouse gas have been proposed. The conclusions are as follows:1. The total amount of carbon emission in the agricultural system of Shanxi province in 2010 is 1.466 million tons and the average growth rate is 3.3% per year which is lower than national level and is declining compared to the previous years. The growing rate is lower than national level except for that of irrigation and plow.2.The total amount of carbon emission from open burning of straw is 166.983×104 tons in 2005 and 232.81 1×104 tons in 2010. The increase rate is 39.43%, reaching the highest level. The straw of corn, wheat and coarse cereals account for over 85% of the total amount and among them, corn has the biggest affection for carbon emission while the impact from coarse cereal is getting lower. On the other hand, rice and cotton has the lowest affection and the conformity of crops is getting stronger.3. Among agricultural emission of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, the amount of emission of methane from rice field is getting lower, and CO2 from methane is only 5100 tons which has little affect on the total amount of agricultural greenhouse emission in Shanxi province; The infusion of pure nitrogen in farm land is relatively stable with the total amount of emission of N2O maintains about 4000 tons. In the six years, the emission of methane from bowel of animals and the emission of nitrous oxide from feces management plummet and the rate is over 50%, which is mainly resulting from the declining number of livestocks, but it still has the biggest impact on the total number of greenhouse gases emission.4. The proportion of agricultural carbon emission in Yuncheng city is the highest in Shanxi province while that of Yangquan city is the lowest. The highest intensity comes from Taiyuan, Jinzhong and Changzhi. Xinzhou and Lvliang city both have lower amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emission but the growth rate are the biggest ones. The distribution is zonal. The total amount of carbon emission grows negatively only in Ningwu, Xiyang, Zuoquan and Wuxiang.5. In the six years, the total amount of agricultural greenhouse gas emission in Shanxi province has declined by 29.85%. The trend basically aligns with the carbon emission from N2O and CH4 but is contrary with agricultural carbon emission. From 2007, the amount of agricultural carbon emission surpasses that from the greenhouse gas but the total amount is still declining. In 2010, agricultural greenhouse gas emission increases a little but the 10000 CDP carbon emission is declining steadily.6. Among the factors of agricultural greenhouse gas emission in Shanxi province, the emission efficiency of agricultural product declines, the decrement effect of which has the biggest influence on the agricultural greenhouse gas emission in Shanxi province. Economic development is a relatively important increment affect while structural factor and population effect are less.7. Countermeasures for the reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emission were put forward based on the above analysis. These measures include the research and development of the technology of economical lower carbon agriculture, the technology of applying fertilizer based on soil testing, the technology of converting biological carbon from agricultural waste to farmland, the development of circulation agriculture and ecological agriculture, the renewal of agricultural machinery and technology; the development and improvement of fertilizer model so as to improve crops absorption rate; the promotion of solar energy and biogas technology and the popularization of solar collector, etc.