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Study On Influencing Factors Of Haze And Its Control Measures

Posted on:2016-12-31Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y N WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2271330461498770Subject:Applied statistics
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In recent years,with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,China’s economic has seen a fast growth.However,a lot of serious problems appeared due to the economic growth.A series of factors such as motor vehicle exhaust emissions, industrial emissions, and the burning of fossil fuels result in the air quality deteriorating,haze weather occurred across the country with more and more high frequency. People’s normal life,work and health all take their toll. Haze has become a hot topic to the government and people,and has boecome a problem needed to research and solve. The main reason of the fog and its harm is the particle PM10 and PM2.5 suspending in the air. Therefore, exploring the PM10 and PM2.5and their influencing factors has important theoretical and practical significance.Beijing,as the political center and cultural center of China, has become one of the most serious air pollution city in our country. Research shows that average concentrations of PM2.5 in Beijing, guangzhou and other first-tier cities has far greater than that of similar foreign cities. At present, many scholars at home and abroad has done a lot of research on haze, the study of haze in Beijing is mainly concentrated in the city, and mainly based on the study of climatology, environmental science of experts and scholars. Research on the composition characteristics of PM2.5and PM10 is much less. Therefore, the paper study the influence factors of the Beijing smog on the basis of existing research results.This paper firstly shows a exploration and descriptive statistical analysis of the air quality index(AQI) monitoring indexes of all the year of 2014 in Beijing,to research and analysis the changes of the air quality index and related indexes of PM2.5, PM10 in a year, which results that there is a similar trend of PM2.5, PM10 and air quality index in 2014. And the correlation coefficient matrix find that PM2.5and PM10 are tightly correlated with the decline in air quality.Then, this paper introduces the effect of time to give an analysis of PM2.5 of Beijing in 365 days of2014 by time series analysis and establishes the ARMA model to explore the dynamic changes of long-term trend, cycle and other factors of the data,which result is used to predict the concentration of PM2.5 on the January 1, 2015, the forecast value and the actual value is consistent with the basic.Then, on the based of the previous chapter,this paper introduces some factors that include PM10,SO2, CO, NO2 to analyze their influence relationship between PM2.5 and PM10.The establishmentof vector auto regression model using Eviews software finally finds out the relationship between PM2.5 and multiple factors. The discovery shows that CO has bigger influence on them in the short term, while SO2 has bigger influence in the long term. In addition, variance decomposition results show that both SO2 and CO have bigger influence on the PM2.5 and PM10.This paper first uses the VAR model that studies the influencing factors of haze, aims to analyze the fluctuation of reasonable given lag on the PM10 and PM2.5 concentration, which has certain research significance.Then,This paper puts forward suggestions on the management of haze from SO2、CO、NO2.Finally, this paper summarizes the empirical study results, and points out the shortcomings of this article.
Keywords/Search Tags:fog, PM2.5, PM10, ARMA model, vector autoregressive model
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