Prediction Of China's Steel Demand In The Late Stage Of COVID-19

The study of steel demand is of great significance for steel enterprises and countries.We can forecast the demand to a certain extent to avoid the risk of market fluctuations.Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia,the epidemic has been spreading,leading to a decline in demand.Therefore,it is of great significance for iron and steel enterprises to reasonably arrange the production rhythm,maintain the balance of market supply and demand,strengthen capital management and guard against risks to forecast the domestic market steel demand after the epidemic,analyze the inflection point of domestic market steel demand and predict the future steel demand.On the basis of previous studies,using the quarterly data from 2000 to the first half of 2020,this paper constructs multiple regression model and ARIMA model respectively with China's steel sales as the core,forecasts the first two quarters of China's steel demand in 2020,and forecasts the steel demand in 2020 by multiple regression model and time series prediction model results,the first two quarters were selected as the test quantity,and the predicted value was compared with the actual value in point estimation and interval estimation.The change of demand and the possible time of inflection point under the influence of epidemic situation were observed.According to the forecast results,without the impact of the epidemic,the steel demand in the first quarter should be 280?290 million tons,the steel demand in the second quarter should be 325?336 million tons,while the actual demand in the first quarter was 253.842 million tons,and the second quarter was 358.817 million tons.Considering the deviation and dispersion degree of the two quarters and the real data,the demand in the first quarter decreased obviously.After the epidemic situation was basically controlled in March,the resumption of work and production was basically implemented.The steel demand in the market not only returned to normal,but also compensated for the demand affected by the first quarter.Therefore,the inflection point in the second quarter has arrived,and the second quarter has not changed Steel demand reached a small peak.Due to the limitations of the above models in the study of steel supply and demand system,based on the analysis of multiple regression model and ARIMA model,some variable data from 2000 to 2019 and the first two quarters of 2020 are selected for VAR Modeling.After the model is tested,the model system is deeply understood from the aspects of impulse response and variance decomposition,and the prediction is made on this basis.The impulse response results show that the impact will be stabilized after one year,and the impact will almost disappear after two years.The results of variance decomposition show that the contribution rate of GDP,automobile output and completed area of real estate to steel demand is more than 10%,and the contribution rate of GDP and completed area of real estate to steel demand is gradually increasing.The forecast results show that the steel demand elasticity is large in the future,the demand will drop slightly in the third quarter of 2020,and the steel demand will expand in the fourth quarter and the first and second quarters of 2021.The purpose of quantitative analysis of historical data by modeling is to qualitatively analyze the future.Finally,this paper forecasts and judges from the perspective of trend change,and gives suggestions according to the analysis results combined with China's actual national conditions and dual cycle strategic deployment.