Ecological Security Evaluation, Early Warning And Alert Of The Keriya Oasis In Xinjiang

Ecological problems has been becoming a threat to the survival and security of mankind, and then ecological security is put forward, which is the extension of concepts, such as ecological degradation, ecological damage, ecological threat and ecological fragility. Ecological security is the security based on human, including natural ecological system, economic ecological system and social ecological system. Quantitative judgment of ecological security evaluation can help people increase awareness of ecological protection, regulate ecological environment system and reconcile the contradiction between environment and development, which can decrease major decision-making mistakes and reach the common development of society, economy and ecology. Taking typical oasis of Keriya Oasis as research object, based on the study of natural, economic and social characteristics, this paper had made a comprehensive evaluation on the ecological security of Keriya Oasis from 2000 to 2012 by using principal component analysis. Meanwhile, this paper had made a quantitative calculation on the coupling relationship among the ecological security of each subsystem of 19 villages and towns, combining with the coupling degree model. Through the construction of the matter element model of Keriya Oasis ecological safety, this paper also had made the ecological security early warning and forecast of the oasis combining grey prediction GM(1, 1) model, hoping to realize sustainable development and security of ecological system composed of natural ecological system, economic ecological system and social ecological system in Keriya Oasis.The main conclusions are as following:1.The indexes effecting Keriya Oasis can be divided into four principal components, including factor of social development level, natural resources factor, ecological environment factor and industrial structure factor. From 2000 to 2012, the value of ecological security evaluation in Keriya Oasis kept a rising trend in general in the small fluctuations. From 2000 to 2006, the integrated assessment value was under 0, although growth, but growth was not stable. From 2007 to 2012, growth tended to be stable; the growth rate was faster than the previous stage.2.The scores of natural subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem analyze the characteristics of natural-economic-social ecological security system, the development type of oasis natural, economic and social in 2000 to 2012 had obvious characteristics of time series, the lagged type of social benefit appeared in 2000 to 2004 and 2006; the lagged type of economic benefit only appeared in 2005, the lagged type of natural environment benefit appeared after 2007. In the study period, the coupling coordination degree was increased; it changed a low level of coupling to antagonistic coupling. The coupling coordination type had experienced the process of “serious imbalance-moderate recession”. Although the coordination degree and the coupling coordination degree were improved, the coupling coordination degree was lower.3.The scores of natural subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem, the higher scores were Oytograk township, Oytograk township and Jiayi township, the lower scores were Darioyabui township, Darioyabui township and Aqiang township. The distribution of natural ecological security system in Keriya Oasis was: the eastern part of oasis was better than the western part, the southern part was better than northern part,the scores of natural subsystem of the middle densely populated area in oasis was lower. The distribution of economic subsystem was: the eastern part of oasis was better than the western part, the southern part was better than northern part. The distribution of social subsystem was: the western part of oasis was better than the eastern part, the northern part was better than southern part, the oasis score of center reduced to around. The coupling index of natural-economic-social of towns in oasis changed a little, the development level of natural subsystem, economic subsystem and social subsystem was lower, the interaction among subsystems was weak, the highest integrated coordination index of ecological security was Oytograk township, the lowest was Darioyabui township, the comprehensive level of oasis ecological security was low. The coupling coordination type of Darioyabui township was moderate recession, Aricht ownship, Oytograk township, Sheep township and Langanboziya farm were mild recession, other towns were on the brink of recession.4.The indexes such as Penetration rate of gas, Penetration rate of water, city residents’ disposable income, the first industry proportion accounted for GDP, the third industry proportion accounted for GDP, the per capita amount of groundwater extraction, the per capita forest area and, the per capita area of soil and water loss and were increased in different levels, from 2000 to 2012, ecological security level went through: insecurity- insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-insecurity-criticality security-relative insecurity-relative insecurity-criticality security. The ecological security level has improved, but the state was not stable.5.Predicted the ecological security of each grade correlation in the oasis for the next six years with the grey prediction GM(1, 1) model. The prediction results show that: from 2013 to 2018, the degree of ecological security in the study area has improved, but the level of security in a state of relative insecurity; this state is not stable, having a trendy to critical security state. The development of this area should combine with the local geographical features, play the advantages of local resources, promote clean energy and water-saving irrigation, and increase poverty alleviation efforts. This area should pay attention to the protection of the natural environment and ecological safety while developing the economy, and promote the development of the oasis ecosystem to a safe direction at the same time.