Research On Land Ecological Security Assessment And Prediction Of Yangzhou

Land is the place for human survival and development.The reasonable land use is the key to the stability of the ecological environment and sustainable development of human society. In recent years, with the rapid urbanization and industrialization, population grew rapidly, the demand for land has also been expanded. Destroying forest, reclaiming land from lakes, random exploitation and other unreasonable activities have exceeded the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and triggered a series of ecological problems. This result continuous recession of the function of ecosystem services, serious damage of the regional ecological environment, which cause a serious threat to human sustainable development. Maintenance of land ecosystem security is an important way to solve the ecological and environmental problems. Also, it is an important guarantee to solve ecological problem. Research on land ecological security which is an important safeguard of the sustainable use of land resources can help to fully understand the condition and problems of land ecological security. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the study.Based on the theory of land ecological security assessment and prediction, combined with Yangzhou land ecological characteristics, this paper establishes a land ecological security assessment index system for Yangzhou, which uses fuzzy set pair analysis to evaluate Yangzhou land ecological security from 2001 to2010 and uses grey prediction method and regression analysis method to predict Yangzhou land ecological level in the next decade. The main results are as follows:(l)Yangzhou is given priority to with plain, abundant waters; Farmland mainly cultivated land. Woodland, parkland and other agricultural land have small proportion; differences in the regional distribution of the land use structure are small;First, second and third industry coordinated development,has formed a land utilization pattern which includes farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. However, land use efficiency is low, and the efficiency distribution is uneven; There is severe waste in the process of land resource utilization;Construction land structure is not reasonable, especially the rural residential land use ratio is higher; Cultivated land decrease and cultivated land quality drop; The ecological pressure of land use is gradually increased.(2)Overall,in 2001-2010,the land ecological security degree of Yangzhou showed a upward trend at the level Ⅱ, but the land ecological security in 2001,2002 and 2008 is in level Ⅲ. Specifically, during the study period, land ecological pressure system present a stable state; State system and the land ecological security trends are similar, which are both in a rising trend in fluctuation; Response system shows the tendency of rising. All shows that land ecological security response strength is higher than the pressure brings to the land, so that the land ecological security situation improves.(3)Based on the Yangzhou land ecological safety assessment,and took the land ecological security situation in 2001-2010 as the background value, this paper uses the grey system theory and regression analysis method to establish the land ecological security prediction model. The results show that in the prediction period without experiencing major changes, the overall safety of land ecological system will maintain a steady upward trend, the land ecological response will also increase,but land ecological pressure increase gradually,so the state system is stable.