Evaluation Of Ecological Security Of Cultivated Land In Zibo City

Cultivated land resources are the most basic means of production of agriculture,and also the most basic material basis for social development and human survival.Food is taken as the sky and soil as the mother of food.The protection of cultivated land ecosystem is related to national food security and the long-term livelihood of farmers.In today’s acceleration of urban expansion and industrialization,excessive cultivated land resources,unreasonable utilization of resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment,leading to the cultivated land ecosystem facing unprecedented difficulties,so regional ecological security research,improve the cultivated land ecosystem for promoting the construction of ecological civilization and regional sustainable development has practical significance.This paper selects Zibo City as the research goal,based on the "pressure-state-response" model,scientifically selects 24 most representative evaluation indicators from 2004-2018 to construct farmland ecological safety evaluation index system,calculate the weight and combination of G1 method and entropy method,comprehensively evaluate the changes of cultivated land ecological safety in time,and spatial characteristics with the improved TOPSIS model evaluation,and to predict the ecological safety status of Zibo City in 2019-2023.Through the help of the diagnostic model,reliable basis for solving the regional ecological problem.The results are as follows:(1)From the point of view of time series scale: the close degree of ecological security in Zibo City from 2004 to 2018 is always between 0.2 and 0.6,The security level is hovering between danger and criticality,The closeness increased from 0.2910 in 2004 to 0.5657 in2018.Being at risk in 2004-2011 and 2013,In 2012 and 2012-2018,In a critical state.From the point of view of the three subsystems,the overall rise of the pressure subsystem and the response subsystem is obvious.In 2017,the closeness is higher than 0.6,reaching the safety state,while the state subsystem is reduced from the safety grade to the danger grade,and the closeness degree is reduced to 0.3915.(2)From the spatial scale,the level of ecological security of cultivated land in the northern districts of Zibo City is higher than that in the central and southern regions,and the level of ecological security of cultivated land in the districts and counties of Zibo City is uneven.From the spatial distribution of the level of ecological security of cultivated land in the districts and counties of Zibo City in 2018,Gaoqing County is safe level,Huantai County is at a safe level,while Zhoucun District,Linzi District,Zhangdian District,Boshan District,Zichuan District and Yiyuan County are all in a critical state.(3)Calculating the barriers to the indicator factors in the criterion-layer subsystem and indicator-layer for 2004-2018.The results show that the influence of response subsystem criterion layer on cultivated land ecological security is decreasing in 2004-2018,while the resistance of state subsystem criterion layer is increasing,and the obstacle degree of pressure subsystem criterion layer fluctuates,and finally increases by a small margin.Among the main obstacle factors in the index layer of cultivated land ecosystem in Zibo City are: per capita net income of farmers,proportion of primary industry to GDP,disposal rate of industrial solid waste,amount of municipal solid waste transportation,degree of soil and water coordination,per capita grain occupation and per unit grain yield.The results of grey prediction model show that the level of ecological security of cultivated land in Zibo City is on the rise from 0.5791 to 0.6591 in 2019-2023.(4)In view of the regional characteristics of Zibo City and the main obstacles to the ecological security of cultivated land,in order to promote the ecological protection and construction of Zibo City,make full use of agricultural advantages and increase farmers’ income;improve and implement the system of ecological protection of cultivated land;promote the ecological restoration of cultivated land and protect the ecological environment of cultivated land;improve the level of agricultural modernization and increase grain production;increase investment in agricultural infrastructure and promote soil and water coordination;optimize the structure and layout of production capacity to reduce industrial pollution;and construct a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for ecological security of cultivated land.