The Analysis Of The Influence Factors And Prediction Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

In recent years, large amounts of pollutants emissions have made the environment purification ability almost beyond its scope due to human activities.The fog appeared frequently,glaciers were melted, the temperature suddenly dropped,such weather was capricious.People have felt the power of nature,at the same time,the signs of deterioration of the environment is more and more obvious.The continual increase of carbon dioxide emissions is an important cause of environmental degradation.In the process of rapid pace of industrialization,the industrial energy consumption,traffic emissions, and the use of household appliances,are all closely related to the carbon dioxide emissions.The research of carbon dioxide emissions has far-reaching significance for environmental protection work.Hubei is a big province of Middle East,which is known as "land of fish and rice".Its geographical position is superior,and it’s rich in water resources and mineral resources.In thirty-one provinces,the GDP of Hubei in 2013 occupied the ninth in China,the second in the Central China,but during the period of rapid economic rise of the "twelfth five-year plan",it appeared development bottleneck —the increase rate of GDP in 2013 was 10.8%,only about half of the increase rate 22% in 2010.Economic growth relies too much on heavy industry development,which not only need to spend a lot of energy,but lead to vicious cycle of environment.The research on carbon dioxide emissions in Hubei province is beneficial to make targeted corresponding strategies.First the definition,classification of carbon source and the calculation method of carbon dioxide emissions were introduced.At the second step,the influence factors of carbon dioxide emissions was analyzed from the population,economy,industrial structure,energy and then the present status of carbon dioxide emissions in Hubei province was shown from four aspects —carbon dioxide emissions, economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption structure.Based on the factors,the main influence factors could be found by using grey correlation evaluation model,which was population,GDP and coal consumption.The third,linear regression and polynomial curve model was established and errors were analyzed.By solving the linear programming model,two kinds of single model weight coefficients were got and combination forecast model was set up. At last, the corresponding countermeasures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions were put forward by forecasting and analyzing Hubei province’s carbon emissions in 2014~2018.Through the above analysis,it can be seen that carbon dioxide emissions of Hubei province is in the medium level and a lot of problems exist in the industrial structure and energy utilization.It has been predicted that carbon dioxide emissions in Hubei province from 2014 to 2018 in five years rise in 1% ~2% rate,and the growth rate is slower.It can be affirmed that the measures of energy conservation and emissions reduction are effective,at the same time measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be raised in Population,energy utilization,low carbon economic development, industrial structure, Carbon sequestration increase and emissions reduction technology.In particular— control population growth,improve population quality;optimize energy structure,improve energy utilization efficiency;develop low carbon economy pilot,perfecting the mechanism of carbon trading;adjust the industrial structure,raise the proportion of the tertiary industry;intensify propaganda and vigorously reforestation.